■ In the process of inflationary pressures arising from non-policy demand factors after COVID-19, model estimates suggest that fiscal policy exerted upward pressure on prices in 2022？23, while monetary policy has applied downward pressure since 2023. - Rapid base rate hikes since H2 2022 have contributed to price stabilization, whereas the sustained expansive fiscal stance at a relatively high level continued to exert upward pressure through 2023. - Although inflation begin to decelerate in 2024, the sustained high interest rate environment continues to exert downward pressure on prices. ■ With moderation in inflation expected to continue, corresponding adjustments to the macroeconomic policy stance would be advisable. - Since the lagged effect of non-policy demand factors diminishes if no additional shocks occur, the disinflationary trend may persist in the near term. - Therefore, the intensity of monetary tightening should be carefully calibrated to prevent inflation from remaining below the target for an extended period, and fiscal policy warrants caution considering the already elevated level of government expenditure.

■ In the process of inflationary pressures arising from non-policy demand factors after COVID-19, model estimates suggest that fiscal policy exerted upward pressure on prices in 2022？23, while monetary policy has applied downward pressure since 2023. - Rapid base rate hikes since H2 2022 have contributed to price stabilization, whereas the sustained expansive fiscal stance at a relatively high level continued to exert upward pressure through 2023. - Although inflation begin to decelerate in 2024, the sustained high interest rate environment continues to exert downward pressure on prices. ■ With moderation in inflation expected to continue, corresponding adjustments to the macroeconomic policy stance would be advisable. - Since the lagged effect of non-policy demand factors diminishes if no additional shocks occur, the disinflationary trend may persist in the near term. - Therefore, the intensity of monetary tightening should be carefully calibrated to prevent inflation from remaining below the target for an extended period, and fiscal policy warrants caution considering the already elevated level of government expenditure.

■ Real private consumption growth continues to slow alongside real economic growth. Considering other factors, recent trends suggest that the trend growth rate of real private consumption is currently in the mid-1% range. - Given ？ the potential growth rate near 2%, ？ the decreased share of nominal private consumption in GDP due to increased government consumption, and ？ the falling relative price of GDP to private consumption, sustaining the growth trend of real private consumption above the mid-1% range appears unlikely. - Without substantial structural changes, real private consumption growth is expected to continue its downward trend along with falling potential growth. ■ Assessing recent developments from this perspective, private consumption growth appears to be converging toward its mid-to-long-term trajectory, rebounding from 0.9% in Q2 to 1.3% in Q3. - The estimated private consumption growth rate for 2025 is in the high-1% range, below the actual rates recorded from 2017 to 2019 (2.8%) and recent potential growth (around 2%). However, as this estimate surpasses the projected trend growth, it implies easing in the private consumption slowdown. · In 2025, potential rate cuts and export improvements may positively impact private consumption. ■ Accordingly, policy efforts should prioritize stimulating private consumption in the mid-to-long term: ？ structural reforms to mitigate the declining potential growth rate, ？ cautious expansion in government consumption, and ？ strengthening export competitiveness to achieve higher value-added output. - Over the long term, enhancing productivity is essential for bolstering economic dynamism since income constitutes the foundation of private consumption. · The development and diffusion of production technology through R&D and education should be actively promoted, along with efforts to increase overall economic flexibility to improve resource allocation efficiency. - Additionally, to prevent government consumption expansion from limiting private consumption capacity, it should be approached with caution, focusing on enhancing expenditure efficiency. - Moreover, to address the trend of export prices growing more slowly than import prices, it is essential to significantly enhance the capacity for value-added export generation through advanced technological development.

■ Real private consumption growth continues to slow alongside real economic growth. Considering other factors, recent trends suggest that the trend growth rate of real private consumption is currently in the mid-1% range. - Given ？ the potential growth rate near 2%, ？ the decreased share of nominal private consumption in GDP due to increased government consumption, and ？ the falling relative price of GDP to private consumption, sustaining the growth trend of real private consumption above the mid-1% range appears unlikely. - Without substantial structural changes, real private consumption growth is expected to continue its downward trend along with falling potential growth. ■ Assessing recent developments from this perspective, private consumption growth appears to be converging toward its mid-to-long-term trajectory, rebounding from 0.9% in Q2 to 1.3% in Q3. - The estimated private consumption growth rate for 2025 is in the high-1% range, below the actual rates recorded from 2017 to 2019 (2.8%) and recent potential growth (around 2%). However, as this estimate surpasses the projected trend growth, it implies easing in the private consumption slowdown. · In 2025, potential rate cuts and export improvements may positively impact private consumption. ■ Accordingly, policy efforts should prioritize stimulating private consumption in the mid-to-long term: ？ structural reforms to mitigate the declining potential growth rate, ？ cautious expansion in government consumption, and ？ strengthening export competitiveness to achieve higher value-added output. - Over the long term, enhancing productivity is essential for bolstering economic dynamism since income constitutes the foundation of private consumption. · The development and diffusion of production technology through R&D and education should be actively promoted, along with efforts to increase overall economic flexibility to improve resource allocation efficiency. - Additionally, to prevent government consumption expansion from limiting private consumption capacity, it should be approached with caution, focusing on enhancing expenditure efficiency. - Moreover, to address the trend of export prices growing more slowly than import prices, it is essential to significantly enhance the capacity for value-added export generation through advanced technological development.

■ Online consumption growth positively impacts inflation by reducing supplier costs and promoting competition, but downward pressure on employment is observed over a certain period. - As the rising share of online consumption exerts downward pressure on product prices, it is assessed to have partially contributed to stabilizing the inflationary surge immediately after the COVID-19 crisis. - However, the transition to online spending has led to employment declines in sectors reliant on offline sales, such as wholesale and retail trade and accommodation and food services. - While the transportation and storage sector, including delivery and logistics, experienced job creation, this only modestly offset employment declines in in-person service sectors, suggesting limited workforce mobility across industries. ■ Therefore, it is essential to foster market conditions that preserve the price-stabilizing effects of increased competition driven by advancements in e-commerce technology and online consumption growth, protecting against monopolization in related industries. ■ In the labor market, this shift is prompting cross-sectoral employment restructuring, suggesting the need for intervention through economic and social policies. - Workers in traditional wholesale and retail sectors need policy support to expand online sales channels. In addition, stronger retraining programs are required to facilitate smoother transitions across sectors for workers in declining industries. - Furthermore, alongside the expansion of delivery and logistics, the growing proportion of atypical employment arrangements, including workers in special employment types, calls for policy measures to build more effective social safety nets.

■ Online consumption growth positively impacts inflation by reducing supplier costs and promoting competition, but downward pressure on employment is observed over a certain period. - As the rising share of online consumption exerts downward pressure on product prices, it is assessed to have partially contributed to stabilizing the inflationary surge immediately after the COVID-19 crisis. - However, the transition to online spending has led to employment declines in sectors reliant on offline sales, such as wholesale and retail trade and accommodation and food services. - While the transportation and storage sector, including delivery and logistics, experienced job creation, this only modestly offset employment declines in in-person service sectors, suggesting limited workforce mobility across industries. ■ Therefore, it is essential to foster market conditions that preserve the price-stabilizing effects of increased competition driven by advancements in e-commerce technology and online consumption growth, protecting against monopolization in related industries. ■ In the labor market, this shift is prompting cross-sectoral employment restructuring, suggesting the need for intervention through economic and social policies. - Workers in traditional wholesale and retail sectors need policy support to expand online sales channels. In addition, stronger retraining programs are required to facilitate smoother transitions across sectors for workers in declining industries. - Furthermore, alongside the expansion of delivery and logistics, the growing proportion of atypical employment arrangements, including workers in special employment types, calls for policy measures to build more effective social safety nets.