KDI Korea Development Institute

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Korean Unique Regulations in Housing Market

We study regulations in the housing market, which are very unique and have great influences in Korea. Due to COVID-19, the housing market have experienced rapid changes. Thus, the government responded boldly with unprecedented policies. Among others, 3 special regulations are on the table for discussion. The first is the Land Transaction Permit, which was implemented to reduce demand on housing in specific regions. Second, the Price Cap on New Houses is investigated for housing supply policy. The final is a regulation on the contract renewal claims in the housing rental market.

Chapter 2 analyzes the direct and indirect price effects of the Land Transaction Permit (LTP), a selective regulation introduced in 2020 for high-priced houses in Seoul to stabilize skyrocketing prices. The LTP is an administrative regulation that requires local governments to permit transactions in designated "areas," and as of 2022, the total area covered by the LTP is about 9% of Seoul's land area.Houses in the LTP zone can only be purchased by buyers who are either homeless or will eventually become single-family homeowners, and they must actually live in the houses for two years immediately after purchase. In this study, we analyzed the price and transaction volume of LTP regulated and unregulated houses, focusing on "Jamsil-dong, Samsung-dong, Daechi-dong, and Cheongdam-dong," which were designated in June 2020. In the regulated area, the LTP scheme directly reduced transaction volumes by 38.3% and prices by 4.3% compared to unregulated areas. However, the LTP scheme unexpectedly had a positive price appreciation effect on homes located closer to the regulated areas. When unregulated dwellings are categorized according to their distance from the regulated area, we estimate that dwellings closer to the regulated area increased in price by 2.3% relative to dwellings further away, and this effect is larger the closer they are to the regulated area. It appears that some of the demand in the regulated area shifts to nearby unregulated areas with higher substitutability. The different direction of the direct effect on regulated areas and the indirect effect on nearby areas suggests that selective regulation, such as LTP, may not be the right regulatory approach to achieve the goal of stabilizing the housing market.

The next chapter, Chapter 3, examines the effects of the Price Cap on New Houses. This price cap, which limits the price of new homes, is one of the controversial regulations that raises concerns that it may limit housing supply in the future. However, this study's analysis found no evidence that the price cap reduces the supply of new homes. Although the pre-sale price cap limits the profits of housing construction projects, it is operated by reflecting all the costs of land and construction for housing supply. Even if the prices of newly supplied homes are limited by the price cap during the period when the housing price is on the rise, the sales of new homes is likely to increase as well. Thereby housing development projects are profitable enough to cover all the costs. Therefore, there appears to be no empirical evidence for concerns that future housing supply will be reduced by this price cap implemented during the housing market boom. However, these results are contradictory to the results of existing studies, so caution needs to be taken when interpreting them further.

Chapter 4 investigates the price impact of the deposit control imposed on the housing repo contract in Korea, known as Jeonse. Jeonse is a unique housing repo contract in Korea where the landlord borrows a deposit from the tenant, using the house as collateral. The tenant is granted the right to occupy the house during the contract period at the expense of the deposit’s opportunity cost. In July 2020, the Korean legislature passed a law granting tenants the right to renew the Jeonse contract once, with the new deposit amount not exceeding a 5% increase from the original amount. While this new regulation has been heavily criticized as the primary driver of the surge in Jeonse deposits during the pandemic, its actual price impact has not been properly estimated.

We estimate the value of the Jeonse renewal option monthly using option pricing techniques, based on reasonable assumptions about the housing price process and information gathered from the current term structure of interest rates. Our estimation results indicate that the deposit control regulation raised Jeonse deposits nationwide by only 0.97% and by 4.80% in Seoul at the time of the introduction of the regulation, a magnitude significantly lower than previously discussed in both media and academic circles. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the renewal option does not have any intrinsic value over the past 10 years, suggesting that the option can be considered pure insurance against an unexpected increase in the equilibrium level of Jeonse deposits by the time of expiry. Based on the background of the regulation and the results of our analysis, we provide policy suggestions.

Summary

Policy Study KOR A Study on Elderly Poverty: Focusing on Income and Consumption

This study investigates elderly poverty in South Korea by incorporating both consumption and income to provide a comprehensive assessment of the economic status of the elderly population. By examining these two factors, the study aims to identify vulnerable groups experiencing financial difficulties across multiple dimensions. The findings underscore the variability within income poverty among older adults, highlighting notable differences based on asset holdings. Accounting for both income and consumption allows a more nuanced understanding of elderly poverty, revealing vulnerable groups facing economic hardships in both dimensions. Furthermore, elderly poverty is examined across generations, showing that its high rate in Korea primarily stems from pre-1950s cohorts, who benefited less from rapid economic growth and pension schemes. Consequently, effective poverty alleviation strategies should target the older and poorer demographic relatively left out of economic growth and pension programs. Restructuring the Basic Pension to offer substantial support to vulnerable groups, while excluding high-asset but low-income individuals, can enhance the system’s sustainability and effectiveness in poverty alleviation.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Impact of Carbon-Neutrality Policies:Focusing on Trade and Environment

This study examines the impact of carbon neutrality policies on Korea and explores potential government responses to the rapidly evolving global policy landscape concerning carbon and trade. Specifically, it focuses on the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and how South Korea's carbon neutrality policies might influence the CBAM's impact. In addition, it analyzes the effects of each carbon neutrality policy option on Korea’s economy, including trade and GDP, and emissions.

This study finds that the EU CBAM may not affect Korean exports due to its relatively narrow scope of products and emissions covered in the current version of the policy. However, its influence is likely to grow if the scope of regulated products expands and the range of indirect emissions covered increases. The study then considers carbon pricing, green technology R&D, and green supply chain policies as strategic directions for Korea's government to both respond to global policy changes, such as CBAM, and achieve climate neutrality. Although both increasing carbon prices and developing carbon reduction technologies mitigate the negative impacts of CBAM by decreasing CBAM tariff rates, their effects on Korea's production, exports, income, and welfare differ.

Green supply chain policies involve adjusting trade costs according to the carbon intensity and price of intermediate inputs’ origins. This aims to reduce production's embedded indirect emissions and increase the carbon price already paid in source countries. The study evaluates two opposing approaches to implementing this policy: lowering trade costs for 'green' suppliers and raising them for 'dirty' suppliers. The results indicate that decreasing trade costs, as opposed to increasing them, results in higher GDP, greater export competitiveness, and improved welfare. The study shows that although different policy options are themselves effective in responding to CBAM and reducing carbon emissions in Korea overall, their impact on Korea’s economy and emissions are heterogeneous. Therefore, understanding the complex consequences of these policies and selectively implementing them based on the distinct characteristics of the affected industries is crucial.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Analyzing the Productivity Spillovers of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Considering the Characteristics of Industrial Complexes

Using large-scale panel data at the business unit level in South Korea, this study analyzes how the presence of FDI firms in industrial complexes impacts the productivity of domestic firms through vertical spillovers. Due to industrial agglomeration, FDI firms in industrial complexes are expected to engage more in vertical interactions with local firms and to procure a higher proportion of inputs locally compared to those outside the complexes. Therefore, the backward linkage effects of FDI firms in industrial complexes on domestic firms are anticipated to be more significant than FDI firms not operating in these complexes. To test this hypothesis, it constructs an indicator for the backward linkage effects of FDI and analyzes its relationship with the total factor productivity (TFP) of Korean manufacturing establishments.

This study finds that FDI firms located in industrial complexes exhibit significant positive backward linkage effects on the productivity of domestic firms. In contrast, the backward linkage effects of FDI firms outside the complexes are significantly lower and sometimes negative when domestic firm productivity is measured by value added per employee. These results support the hypothesis that, at least from 2010 to 2019, clustering into industrial complexes positively affects the productivity of domestic firms through the backward linkage effects of FDI firms.

Summary

Policy Study KOR A Study on Impact of Korea’s Policy Instruments for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs)

Over the past five years, there has been a swift increase in the registration of clean vehicles, including Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen-powered Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs). The total number of registered BEVs and FCEVs reached 1.6% of all vehicles by the end of 2022, driven by various government support policies. In pursuit of its net zero goal, the South Korean government aims to increase the share of BEVs and FCEVs to at least 85% by 2050. The 2023 budget for clean vehicles (3.3 trillion won) accounts for 29.0% of the Ministry of Environment's total budget. Against this backdrop, this study empirically examines the effects of recent deployment policies based on data from newly registered BEVs and FCEVs. Specifically, by compiling datasets of newly registered passenger cars, government subsidy levels, and cumulative charging infrastructure by region from 2019 to 2022, this study conducts regression analyses to determine the impact of regional differences in these variables on the changes in the number of newly registered BEVs and FCEVs, respectively.

The analysis reveals that the price elasticity of newly registered BEVs and FCEVs based on subsidy changes was -1.59 and -2.90, respectively, while the charging infrastructure elasticity was 1.24 and 0.93, respectively. Additionally, the high degree of fiscal independence among local governments and high fuel prices for internal combustion engine vehicles contributed to the increase in new registrations. In the case of EVs, the price elasticity for foreign cars was higher than for domestic cars. Moreover, when analyzing EVs restricted to private use, the price elasticity decreased, and the impact of deploying chargers diminished. Based on the obtained estimates, this study further examines alternative scenarios to evaluate the effectiveness of the EV subsidy policy. It turns out that approximately 27.4% of new registrations over the past four years were attributed to subsidy payments, and that charger installation is more cost-efficient than paying subsidy in terms of government expenditure. Furthermore, a cost-benefit analysis of the subsidy policy indicates that in most scenarios, costs outweigh benefits. However, if carbon emissions from the power sector are zero and the social costs of carbon emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles are high, the benefit-cost ratio (benefit amount ÷ cost amount) increases to 0.97.

Based on the analysis, the main policy implications are as follows. First, as future EV sales must target private use, which is less responsive to price changes, the effectiveness of purchase price support will decrease. Therefore, enhancing charging infrastructure to stimulate demand will become more crucial. From a qualitative standpoint, an effective deployment strategy involves ensuring the proper maintenance, repair, and replacement of previously installed chargers to maintain full functionality and enhance consumer convenience within the charging system. Additionally, enhancing charging infrastructure at mobile hubs such as highway rest stops in line with technological advancements like battery performance improvements would be effective in increasing deployment. For hydrogen cars, the higher price elasticity compared to electric vehicles suggests a greater effect of subsidies on their deployment. However, due to the uncertainty of the eco-friendliness of the hydrogen production process, a promotion strategy considering technological changes is required. Lastly, as the number of clean vehicles continues to grow, reforming the tax system becomes inevitable. This includes an overall reform of the tax structure applied to fossil fuels, alongside comprehensive investigations to secure a competitive advantage for clean vehicles during operation.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Work Environment for Work-Family Balance

This study investigates the gender-unequal impacts of marriage and having children on labor market outcomes in South Korea, focusing on the associated penalties (termed marriage penalty and child penalty, respectively) and the work environment characteristics that may contribute to these effects. A difference-in-differences event study method finds that marriage and child penalties are substantial and enduring in employment and earnings. Moreover, international comparison with European countries and the US indicates that in Korea, these penalties mostly arise from the extensive margin (i.e., employment) rather than the intensive margin (i.e., hours worked or wage). This study further examines whether these penalties correlate with occupational working hours and time pressure. The results show that the marriage penalty is less severe for women in occupations with shorter working hours and less time pressure. Thus, considering Korea's long, inflexible working hours and underutilized family policies, these findings underscore the need for a work environment that actively encourages adjustable work schedules and family-friendly policies to advance women’s careers and promote healthy work-family balance.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Demographics and Inflation in Korea

This study empirically analyzes Korean data focusing on the impact of the demographic change on the inflation. The analysis indicates that the ongoing aging of the population does not statistically significantly induce inflation in terms of the aggregate price index. However, an analysis of the sub-items of the price index shows that changes in the age composition of the population are associated with sector-specific inflation. Particularly in the service sector, the increase in the population of the young and the elderly appears to have an inflationary effect, while a relative increase in the working-age population seems to be deflationary. In conclusion, this study finds that the relationship between population structure and inflation varies by sector, with a more pronounced correlation in the service sector. This is an analytically significant finding that deserves policy attention. It suggests that policy decisions for price stability should carefully evaluate and distinctively respond to the potential impacts of demographic changes on a sector-by-sector basis.

Summary

Policy Study KOR A Study of Efficient Utilization of Aging Workers

South Korea is expected to face a deceleration in its economic growth, mainly due to a significant reduction in its labor force, resulting from an exceptionally low fertility rate and a rapidly aging population. In response, some have proposed bolstering the country’s labor market by encouraging the participation of older individuals to mitigate the labor shortage. The effectiveness of this strategy depends on the extent to which the labor provided by older workers can substitute for the diminishing younger workforce. Despite numerous studies on this subject, there is still no clear consensus on the degree of substitutability between the two age groups. Furthermore, the mechanism determining whether different age groups are substitutes or complements in the labor market has not been extensively explored.

This study investigates the contributions of older workers to production and their substitutability with younger workers by analyzing the tasks performed in their jobs. These tasks provide rich information on the nature of work across various occupations, classified into five categories in this study: analytical, social, service, routine, and manual. This study assesses the intensity with which these tasks in each occupation and calculates a task-age profile to observe how task composition shifts as workers age. The findings reveal that older workers are more likely to engage in occupations with a lower intensity of analytical and social tasks but a higher intensity of routine and manual tasks. Interestingly, the shift in task composition with age is less pronounced among female workers, particularly in social and service tasks.

The study also examines age-related task heterogeneity that emerges when workers switch jobs following a period of unemployment. An event study demonstrates that the impact of unemployment significantly varies with age. Workers who became unemployed before the age of 50 did not show marked changes in the intensity of analytical and social tasks in their subsequent jobs. In fact, early-career unemployment actually increased the intensity of these tasks. Conversely, individuals employed after 50 tended to move jobs with a substantially lower intensity of analytical and social tasks compared to their previous jobs. Such trends suggest that later-career unemployment increases the likelihood of obtaining a job with a significantly different task composition, often lower on the occupational ladder. The event study also reveals a gender disparity: post-50 unemployment did not reduce the intensity of social tasks among female workers.

This study reveals significant task segregation in the South Korean labor market, showing the substitutability between older and younger workers heavily depends on the task composition of various occupations. The key findings suggest that it may be challenging for older workers to replace younger ones in occupations requiring intensive analytical and social tasks. Additionally, the analysis indicates that age-related task segregation often results from significant shifts in task requirements when older workers transition to new jobs. Therefore, mitigating task segregation and enhancing the substitutability between different age groups necessitates strategies to prevent premature retirement and expand employment opportunities for older job seekers.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Reforms in Primary and Secondary School Administration and Finance Suitable for a Population-Declining Society

Korea faces inevitable policy shifts due to prolonged demographic declines, affecting not just the primary and secondary school age populations but the overall population as well. This report tackles these shifts by exploring issues to formulate more effective and efficient reform strategies for the administration and finance of education in a shrinking society. It emphasizes the importance of strategically allocating the national budget across various sectors to optimally use limited resources. This requires a national interest perspective, moving beyond sector-specific stakeholders’ gains and losses, and seeking alternatives. The report argues for the necessity of system and policy reform, acknowledging the challenge it poses to entrenched interests but highlighting its importance in addressing our country's challenges through flexible budgeting and efficient execution.

We critique the current method of the total budget calculation for primary and secondary education, which is too rigidly tied to tax revenues, and call for significant reforms in funding allocation to schools. They propose a new method that boosts school autonomy and accountability, allowing educational outcomes to play a role in budget decisions. Moreover, they suggest that operational and project funding managed by provincial education offices should be clearly separated from direct school funding, advocating for rigorous performance evaluations to enhance fiscal efficiency in education. The report offers various recommendations for reforming education finance, aiming to improve both the quality of education and the efficiency of its financing, hoping these policy suggestions will be actively considered.

Chapter 2 evaluates the appropriateness of giving precedence to the primary and secondary education budget over other sectors is evaluated, particularly as public spending on education begins to exceed the OECD average. Through international comparisons and empirical analysis of various factors like the school-age population, GDP per capita, and data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), it investigates these elements' impact on educational budgeting, priorities, and student outcomes, offering policy recommendations for more effective and efficient resource use.

Chapter 3 consists of three parts. First, we analyze the impacts of changing the method of electing the superintendent of education from election by the school management committee to direct election by residents, focusing on students' educational achievement and health using a difference-in-differences method. Second, we examine the impact of per-pupil public education expenditure on academic achievement in South Korea, employing the method of instrumental variables. Third, we assess the impact of per-pupil public education expenditure on academic achievement in the United States using a state-fixed effects model.

The estimation results indicate that in regions where the direct election of superintendents was first implemented, there was a decrease in the proportion of students scoring in the top tier of the College Scholastic Ability Test, and an increase in the proportion of students in the middle and lower tiers, compared to regions where the direct election had not yet been implemented. No significant changes are observed in students’ health. In South Korea, an increase in per-student expenditure positively affects the academic achievement of elementary school students, although the magnitude of this effect is not substantial. No significant, positive effects are found for middle and high school students. In the United States, there is no significant relationship between per-student educational expenditure by state and the academic achievement of students in 4th, 8th, and 12th grades.

The results suggest a need to strengthen accountability for a range of student outcomes among superintendents of education. They also imply a necessity to adjust how education budgets are allocated in response to the declining school-age population and to enhance the allocative efficiency of these budgets.

In Chapter 4, we study the effect of the current institutional features of the education administration and finance system on the structure of local education finance. Specifically, we focus on changes in school budgets when the overall volume of educational finance increases beyond expectations. For recent years, the local education grant has increased unexpectedly, as the national tax revenue increased and large volumes of supplementary budgets were added due to Covid-19. We analyze how this unexpectedly large surplus of educational funding was distributed and executed. In addition, we investigate how the provincial superintendents, elected at the local election, distributed targeted funding to schools.

Our analysis of the budget and balance data of the school and provincial education offices reveals a behavioral response of the education offices to the current institutional characteristics of educational administration and finance. As the total volume of education funding is uncertain at the beginning of the financial year, they first underestimate the total revenue and expend additional revenue through the supplementary budget. A targeted funding, which the superintendent distributes to the schools autonomously, is a good way to expend such extra revenue. Regression analysis using targeted funding distribution data and local election data shows that superintendents distributed a higher amount of funding per school population to schools in a district where the percentage of votes for the superintendent in the last local election was relatively higher. This implies that the distribution of targeted funding is affected by the political interests faced by the superintendent under the current system of the educational administration and finance system.

Chapter 5 discusses how the main issue with the current funding system for education stems from the provincial education offices' lack of incentive to improve financial efficiency, rooted in a system overly reliant on national and local tax revenues without accountability for fund raising. It suggests the need to revise the budget calculation method due to the projected overabundance of funds, following an analysis that shows maintaining 2022 levels of educational infrastructure could lead to increased expenditure per student but not significantly higher total costs. In addition, it is proposed that a hypothetical criteria for integrating schools to enhance financial efficiency. Lastly, it advocates for abolishing the tax revenue-linked budgeting method and introducing a new support system with ten structural elements aimed at improving educational outcomes and addressing regional decline. The report calls for a unified governance structure for education and further research on the necessity of the elected provincial superintendent system.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Who is the Middle Class in Korea?

This study delves into significant discrepancies between the objective and subjective middle classes in Korea, potentially prompting a diverse range of grievances from different economic groups in middle-class discourse. It emphasizes the necessity of examining the multi-layered nature of the so-called "subjective middle class" and its impact on the discourse, together with the causes of such discrepancies and the various challenges that may arise.

The study employs an independent survey to gauge Koreans' class perceptions through two web-based panel surveys. The first survey, conducted in May 2023, queries participants on their objective income and asset levels, subjective class affiliation, satisfaction with living standards and prospects for upward mobility, perceptions of income distribution and inequality, and views on socioeconomic policies. It aims to analyze whether a systematic downward bias exists in self-assessment of one's position in income distribution, patterns of bias and their causes, and potential distortions such bias can cause in policy attitudes.

The subsequent survey, conducted in September 2023, incorporates an experimental component to observe the effects of information on social perception and policy attitudes. It identifies participants' objective class positions using data from the first survey and then shares this information with them. By randomly assigning participants to two groups and providing exact class standings on income distribution to only one group, this study enables an empirical analysis of differences in attitudes toward various social policies, including middle-class awareness and support for redistribution policies, between the feedback-receiving group (treatment group) and the group without feedback (non-treatment group).

The empirical analysis in this research draws from these surveys, with Chapters 2 and 3 based on the first survey (N=3,434) and Chapters 4 and 5 on the second (N=2,000). This report is organized as follows. Chapter 1 presents the necessity and direction of middle-class research, focusing on the concept of the middle class and discussions surrounding the middle-class crisis. Chapter 2 reviews previous studies on objective-subjective class inconsistency, conducts international comparisons using available data, and explores the determinants of subjective class consciousness among Koreans. Chapter 3 compares perceptions of class inequality and policy attitudes on various issues by reclassifying the category of the "socio-economic class" in consideration of the multi-layered nature of the middle class in Korea. Chapter 4 examines the changes after correcting perception biases through objective class information based on the experimentally designed results of the second survey. Chapter 5 assesses the varied cognitive structures and policy preferences within the multi-layered structure of the Korean middle class and examines whether this may lead to policy distortion in the context of discussions on the privileged middle class or elite hereditary succession. Finally, Chapter 6 summarizes the findings and discusses their implications.

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