The financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage meltdown has led to the global financial turmoil, which again has led to the decline in the real economy. The impact that started from the advanced economies is now spreading across the emerging economies. The Korean economy of course is not immune from this impact, and without improvement in the external economic environment, it would be difficult for Korea to overcome this turmoil indepen-dently, even when the government takes whatever actions necessary. In addition, the possibility that the financial and real economy crisis in Korea could be exacerbated by the” bursting of bubble” in the real estate market, there is a growing argument that the real estate-triggered financial crisis would be accelerated. Therefore, the changes in the real estate market and its system improvement have come to the fore as the most significant and pending challenge.

It was in late 2007 when this study was first planned, a time before the outbreak of the global financial crisis. Hence, the real estate market and the global financial crisis were not the main focuses of this study, and it was initially intended to seek for an answer to the principle question. In other words, this study started out from the recognition that the real estate has different characteristics from other goods, its supply is limited, it creates various values in several economic and social sectors, and it is significantly influenced by historical, political and cultural environments. Then, this study confirmed that therefore, the real estate policy is a comprehensive policy that embraces several diverse areas so that it is necessary to extensively review those various issues addressed from the real estate finance and taxation, related regulations, supply system and many others. Being conscious of the problem that there have been not enough studies conducted regarding the real estate market with comprehensive viewpoints, this study attempted to seek for the direction for policy issues and goals in the real estate and housing markets from the most comprehensive perspective as possible. Moon Joong Tcha et al. (2004) in the preceding ‘Housing Market Analysis and Policy Agenda’ attempted a comprehensive analysis on the changes in residential conditions, outlook for a long-term housing demand, main variables in the housing market and their influential power, and government actions to secure citizens’ housing rights. This study expands the scope of preceding study to the whole real estate market and analyzes the correlation between the real estate market and macroeconomic variables and the national economy from a long-term perspective.

It is indeed true that for quite a long time the real estate-related policies have been presented only in response to changes in macro-economic conditions on a present situation basis and a full diagnosis of the real estate market itself has not been made sufficiently. In this regard, this study does its best to breakaway from the viewpoint of considering the real estate policy as a solution to macroeconomic problems. It is regarded that the real estate finance or taxation revisions for inflation stability is more likely to distort the real estate market than likely to be successful as areal estate policy. So, this study seeks for alter-natives with its focus on the real estate market policy. In this context, the research outcome from Seung Hwan Seo (1999) is consistent with the direction of this study. Seo (1999) conducted an empirical analysis to show that the impact of the market fundamentals on the change in real estate prices is increasing overtime. This points to the fact that in a short term the real estate market could experience a change affected by the asset selection behavior, but in a long term the market fundamentals are significant and as long as they remain as the main decision variables, there is room for reconsideration of making the real estate the subject of a special policy.

The real estate market is closely related to macro economy and the financial market, while the real estate finance is closely tied to the real estate taxation and regulations. This indicates that the real estate policy should start out from the accurate recognition of its relative relation with other areas. The contents of each chapter in this study seek for alternatives to the solutions of financial, taxation, regulation and supply market problems, while based on the real estate policy made with the extensive perspective.

This study consists of three parts: Part 1 on issues relating to the real estate market, macro economy and finance; Part 2 on taxation issues relating to the real estate market; and Part 3 on issues to improve the real estate-related regulations and to revitalize its supply.

The focus of Part 1 is not to discuss the expectation of a short-term fluctuation in the real estate policy or a price-stabilization policy but to see the position of the real estate sector comparing to other national economy sectors. In terms of the whole national economy, Part 1 questions the possibility of over-investment in the real estate sector compared to non-real estate sectors, and reviews the measures to improve the overinvestment problems. It confirms that for the past decade, among OECD countries, the long-term average growth rate of Korea’s house prices has been low. Hence, this section attempts to identify the changes in the determinants of the house price fluctuation in Korea from the 2000s. This is because of the possibility that it could be the price determinant itself that has changed, not the short-term price fluctuation.

Following the outline, Part 1 consists of three chapters (starting from Chapter 2).Chapter 2 analyzes the long-term effect of the real estate policy on the national economy through an economic growth model. In terms of the whole national economy, this chapter diagnoses the possibility of overinvestment in the real estate sector compared to non-real estate sectors and conducts a simulation analysis on the changes that the increasing property holding tax and the LTV (loan-to-value) regulation have made on the welfare level. Its focus is on which distortion effect would be stronger between the property holding tax and the income tax. Provided that both land and building are used for the production of industrial capitals and houses, these two capitals stand in a substitutive relation to each other in the accumulation process. Therefore, the distortion effect of the property holding tax on buildings reducing housing supply is offset by the positive effect of land and buildings released from the housing sector working to stimulate the accumulation of industrial capitals. So, in the economy where the income created from the industrial capitals is taxed and the rent andimputed rent created from housing are not taxed, an excessive number of residential houses tend to be provided, compared to industrial capitals. This result is also consistent with the main direction of the study of the real estate taxation in Part 2. For instance, if increased property tax to solve the excessive investment in the real estate sector could enhance the welfare of the national public, this is because it coincides with the general direction of the improvement in the real estate taxation, the so-called, ‘low transaction tax, high property holding tax.’

Chapter 3 attempts to conduct a time-series data analysis of the user’s cost of capital depending on the ratio of house price to rent multiples of nationwide and metropolitan areas and the housing ownership. Chapter 4outlines the current status of the housing financial market of Korea since the financial crisis, estimates the long-term demand for the housing finance of Korea, and then examines the improvement challenges for the system relating to the indirect investment in real estate.

The discussion in Part 2 starts out from a critical viewpoint that the real estate taxation so far has been actively used as a policy instrument to uphold the stability of real estate prices. It can be said that the real estate price is determined through a close link between the present value of the future trend of rental income and the expectation of rising real estate prices. The real estate speculation is more related to the latter factor. Therefore, an in-depth assessment is required to see whether the property holding tax or the transaction tax works as a useful instrument to control the rising real estate prices caused by the latter factor. The preceding studies show that the methods of raising interest rates, regulating the bank loans (or real estate financing) and credit restriction have gained more practical outcomes in curtailing real estate speculation than the taxation system. Not only that, the rising real estate prices can be said to have resulted from the steep rise in real estate demand and the shortage in real estate supply, simultaneously. In this regard, in order to stabilize the real estate prices, the measures to curb demand for real estates should be, of course, implemented together with the measures to expand the supply of real estates. The problem is that the revisions in the real estate taxation so far can be categorized into the measure for real estate demand, which in other words, that based on the past experience, the measure has not provided sustain-able achievements in a mid- and long-term perspective.

Part 2 emphasizes the necessity of seeking a policy as the real estate taxation itself, not as an instrument for real estate policy. Above all, Chapter 5 ponders over an adjustment mea-sure that integrates the taxations relating to the real estate transaction and its holding. Chapter 6 and 7 discuss in detail over the effects and improvement challenges of trans-action-related taxes and the property holding taxes. Though there is not much disputes over the direction of improvement in the transaction-related taxes, there are several ongoing controversies over the direction of improvement in the property holding taxes. Recognizing this, the study conducts two additional empirical analyses in Chapter 8and 9. The analysis in Chapter 8 pays attention to what impact does the property holding tax on houses have brought to the income distribution structure by income class. Through this analysis, the study examines whether the tax burden of the property holding tax is progressive or regressive considering the income level. Chapter 9 observes the effectiveness of policy to increase the property holding tax by empirically estimating the impact that the comprehensive real estate tax which was adopted to stabilize real estate prices has made on the cheonsei prices, and also by estimating the degree of tax burden transfer.

The discussion in Part 3 is mostly focused on the improvement in the real estate-related regulations. It discusses various measures to improve the regulations relating to housing supply, development gains recapture scheme, redevelopment and reconstruction, the use of farmland and forestland, and other relating to the supply and demand of real estate. Chapter10 uses a term ‘housing supply scheme’ to refer to the rules that regulate the procedure, criteria, price, schedule, and etc. relating to the distribution of new public housing units. It then reviews several specific contents of housing supply scheme and suggests improvement measures that could systematically tie each system. To put it another way, this study identifies the housing supply scheme as an instrument that distributes development gains from the production of new housing units among landowners, developers, constructors, and contractors, and comes up with a measure under which the distribution structure of the development gains for participants in housing supply could contribute to reach the goals of the long-term housing policy. Chapter 11 takes a different perspective to deal with the development gains recapture scheme and the problems caused in relation to the development of public goods and then seeks for improvement measures. It discusses over questions, such as’ Is it really necessary to recapture the development gains?’ and ‘If so, when and how is it appropriate to conduct this recapture scheme?’ Chapter 12 explains the trend of growing attention on reconstruction and redevelopment projects since the late 1990s, reviews the problems and improvement measures of related regulations, and then suggests a future direction for development through the analysis of impacts caused by those regulations. Chapter 13 introduces the government’s announcement of its policy to increase land supply by expanding the application of city-use land to 9.2% in a long term from the current 6.2%, and then examines whether this policy could accomplish its goals by revitalizing the development of farmland and forestland.

　발간사
　요 약

제Ⅰ부 부동산시장과 거시경제ㆍ금융

　제1장 연구의 논점 및 연구개관 / 김재형
　　제1절 문제의 인식
　　제2절 연구의 출발 및 논점
　　　1. 몇 가지 부동산시장변수 추이 및 시사점
　　　2. 연구의 논점
　　제3절 연구의 주요 내용
　　　1. 제1부: 부동산시장과 거시경제 및 금융
　　　2. 제2부: 부동산시장과 부동산세제
　　　3. 제3부: 부동산 규제개선 및 공급 활성화

　제2장 부동산시장과 국민경제: 시뮬레이션 분석을 중심으로/ 송의영
　　제1절 서 론
　　제2절 몇 가지 원론적 고찰
　　　1. 부동산가격의 상승률 대 수준
　　　2. 부동산 보유세가 부동산의 가격에 미치는 영향
　　　3. 대표가계모형에서 부동산가격과 국민후생
　　　4. 부동산 정책과 미래의 세대
　　제3절 대표가계모형에서 부동산 보유세의 효과
　　　1. 모 형
　　　2. 시뮬레이션
　　제4절 부동산 정책과 미래 세대의 후생
　　　1. 중첩세대모형의 필요성
　　　2. 모 형
　　　3. 시뮬레이션
　　제5절 결 어
　　참고문헌
　　부 록

　제3장 주택담보대출시장: 주택가격 순환성의 결정요인과 정책적 의미 / 조만
　　제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적
　　제2절 우리나라 주택가격 변동패턴의 개관
　　제3절 주택가격변동의 이론적 논거
　　제4절 PRM의 산정 및 분석
　　제5절 2단계 오차수정모형을 통한 분석
　　제6절 분석 결과의 정책적 의미
　　제7절 결 언
　　참고문헌

　제4장 주택금융시장의 현황과 개선과제 / 송준혁
　　제1절 서 론
　　제2절 외환위기 이후의 주택금융시장 변화
　　제3절 외환위기 이후 주택금융시장의 현황
　　　1. 주택담보대출규모
　　　2. 만기 및 상환방식별 주택담보대출
　　　3. 금리조건별 주택담보대출
　　　4. 주택저당채권유동화증권(MBS) 규모
　　　5. 소 결
　　제4절 은행대출 위주의 주택금융의 한계
　　　1. 주택금융 수요 예측
　　　2. 은행권 주택대출 효율성의 변화
　　제5절 부동산투자회사를 통한 주택금융 활성화
　　　1. 부동산투자회사(REITs)의 개념과 전개과정
　　　2. 우리나라 리츠시장의 현황
　　　3. 부동산가격과 리츠의 관계
　　　4. 개선과제
　　제6절 결 론
　　참고문헌

제Ⅱ부 부동산시장과 부동산세제

　제5장 부동산세제 개편방향 / 유태현
　　제1절 부동산세제의 과세체계 및 과세현황
　　　1. 부동산세제의 과세체계
　　　2. 부동산세제의 과세현황
　　　3. 우리나라 부동산과세의 변천과 시사점
　　제2절 부동산세제의 본질과 기능
　　　1. 개 관
　　　2. 부담능력에 따른 과세
　　　3. 지방공공서비스 수혜에 대한 응익과세
　　　4. 부동산 투기억제를 위한 정책세제로서의 역할
　　제3절 우리나라의 부동산세제 개편방향
　　　1. 사회경제 환경 변화의 반영
　　　2. 부동산 보유세와 거래세의 합리적 관계 설정
　　　3. 부동산정책수단으로서의 부동산세제의 역할
　　　4. 부동산세제의 합리화
　　참고문헌

　제6장 부동산 거래세제 개편방안 / 임주영
　　제1절 서 론
　　제2절 부동산거래 관련 세제의 변천과정
　　　1. 취득세의 변전과정
　　　2. 등록세
　　　3. 양도소득세
　　제3절 부동산거래 관련 세제의 현황
　　　1. 취득세
　　　2. 등록세
　　　3. 비과세
　　　4. 양도소득세
　　제4절 부동산거래 관련 세제의 운영에 대한 평가
　　　1. 취득세와 등록세의 운영에 대한 평가
　　　2. 양도소득세의 운영에 대한 평가
　　제5절 부동산거래 관련 세제의 개편방안
　　　1. 취득세와 등록세의 개편방안
　　　2. 양도소득세의 개편방안
　　제6절 결 론
　　참고문헌

　제7장 부동산 보유세제 개편방안 / 안종범
　　제1절 서 론
　　제2절 보유과세 강화의 이론적 타당성과 종합부동산세 도입
　　　1. 부동산 관련세의 이론적 근거
　　　2. 보유과세 인상의 영향에 대한 이론적 논의
　　　3. 종합부동산세 도입의 목적과 성과
　　제3절 보유과세의 현황과 평가
　　　1. 부동산 보유세제의 현황
　　　2. 부동산 보유세제 평가
　　　3. 세대별 합산의 효과
　　　4. 보유세 비중의 국제비교
　　제4절 보유과세의 세부담 분석
　　　1. 보유세 부담수준의 적정성
　　　2. 기존 연구에서의 보유세 부담 분석결과
　　　3. 소득 대비 보유세 부담분석
　　제5절 부동산 보유과세 개선방안
　　　1. 9ㆍ23 종합부동산세 개편안
　　　2. 헌법재판소의 판결에 따른 종합부동산세의 개편방향
　　　3. 보유세 경감의 필요성과 방안
　　참고문헌

　제8장 부동산 보유세의 소득재분배 효과:주택을 중심으로 / 박명호
　　제1절 서 론
　　제2절 우리나라 주택 보유세제 개관
　　　1. 최근 주택 관련 보유세제의 변천과정
　　　2. 재산세와 종합부동산세의 통계 현황
　　제3절 주택 보유세의 소득분배 효과분석
　　　1. 분석자료
　　　2. 주택 보유세의 소득재분배 효과 분석
　　제4절 결론 및 정책적 시사점
　　참고문헌

　제9장 보유세가 전세가격에 미치는 효과:종합부동산세로부터의 증거 / 우석진ㆍ전병힐
　　제1절 개 요
　　제2절 보유세의 강화와 전세가격
　　　1. 종합부동산세 도입과 보유세 강화 정책
　　　2. 보유세와 전세가격의 관계
　　　3. 기존 실증연구
　　제3절 종합부동산세와 전세가격지수의 변화
　　제4절 모형과 식별전략(Identification Strategy)
　　　1. 모 형
　　　2. 식별전략(identification strategy)
　　제5절 자료 및 추정결과
　　　1. 자 료
　　　2. 추정결과
　　제6절 결론 및 정책적 시사점
　　참고문헌

제Ⅲ부 부동산 규제개선 및 공급 활성화

　제10장 주택공급제도 개선방안 / 손재영
　　제1절 서 론
　　제2절 주택공급제도의 의의와 주요 내용
　　　1. 주택공급제도의 의의: 개발이익의 분배 기제
　　　2. 주택청약제도
　　　3. 주택분양가규제제도
　　　4. 주택 분양시기 규제
　　제3절 주택공급제도의 주요 쟁점
　　　1. 주택청약제도의 쟁점
　　　2. 분양가규제제도의 쟁점
　　　3. 주택 분양시기 규제의 쟁점
　　제4절 주택공급제도 관련 쟁점에 관한 실증분석
　　　1. 분양가 자율화 시기의 개발이익 배분 구조
　　　2. 주택청약제도에 대한 인식조사
　　　3. 분양가 상한과 택지 감정평가
　　　4. 분양가 자율화 전후의 아파트 가격추이 비교
　　제5절 결 론
　　참고문헌
　　부 록

　제11장 개발이익 환수제도 개선과제 / 김재형ㆍ홍성필
　　제1절 문제의 제기
　　제2절 개발이익 환수의 이론적 검토
　　　1. 개발이익 환수의 필요성
　　　2. 공공투자의 자본화가설(capitalization theorem) 검토
　　　3. 자본화가설 성립조건: 개발이익 환수의 필요조건
　　제3절 개발이익 환수제도 추이 및 환수수단 구분
　　　1. 개발이익 환수제도의 추이 및 현황
　　　2. 개발이익 환수수단에 의한 구분
　　제4절 개발이익 환수제도 개선과제
　　　1. 양도소득세 등 조세체계를 통한 개발이익 환수 일원화: 장기적 과제
　　　2. 개발부담금제도의 개편: 새로운 부담금제도 제안
　　　3. 개발이익 환수수단의 체계화 및 단순화
　　　4. 개발이익의 내부화
　　　5. 환수행정의 개선
　　참고문헌

　제12장 재개발·재건축 규제개선 분석 / 박환용
　　제1절 문제의 제기
　　제2절 재개발ㆍ재건축의 규제 현황
　　　1. 재건축ㆍ재개발의 주된 고려사항
　　　2. 현행 재개발ㆍ재건축의 규제 현황
　　제3절 재건축ㆍ재개발의 부문별 문제점 고찰
　　　1. 용적률 등 개발밀도의 영향
　　　2. 기반시설의 확보
　　　3. 경관계획 및 공동주택 디자인 가이드라인
　　　4. 주택유형의 다양성
　　　5. 단독주택의 개발 및 정비
　　　6. 소형주택 의무비율과 주택소비경향
　　　7. 주택개발 관련 부담금과 개발이익 환수
　　　8. 정비기반시설 설치와 국공유지 처분
　　제4절 재개발ㆍ재건축 관련 규제의 영향분석
　　　1. 재건축사업 규제의 영향분석을 위한 기본 틀
　　　2. 후분양제도하에서 분양가상한제와 임대주택 용적률 인센티브의 규제영향 분석
　　제5절 재개발ㆍ재건축의 바람직한 향후 발전방향
　　참고문헌

　제13장 농지ㆍ산지 활용방안 / 심교언ㆍ이용범
　　제1절 연구의 개요
　　제2절 농지제도
　　　1. 농지 활용방안 검토 배경
　　　2. 농지이용관리의 제도와 현황
　　　3. 농지 현황 및 문제점
　　　4. 농지의 활용방향
　　　5. 소 결
　　제3절 산지제도
　　　1. 검토 배경
　　　2. 산지의 이용환경 변화
　　　3. 산지이용 및 관리 현황
　　　4. 산지의 이용실태와 문제점
　　　5. 산지이용의 활성화 방안
　　　6. 소 결
　　제4절 요약 및 결론
　　참고문헌