KDI - Korea Development Institute - RESEARCH - Research Areas

Summary

Research Monograph KOR The Impact of Increased Government Bond Issuance and Policy Directions

This study analyzes the repercussions of the sharp increase in government bond issuance following the economic crisis induced by COVID-19. The surge in the issuance of government bonds in South Korea was substantial, driven by the need for financial resources to support expansive fiscal policies in response to the pandemic. As government bond issuance rises, so does the yield on government bonds. Given that the demand in the financial market comprises households, businesses, the government, and external sectors, the increased issuance not only affects government bond yields but also leads to a rise in interest rates faced by households and businesses.

Conversely, the study explores the impact of government bond buy-backs on yield changes, offering a direction opposite to that of increased issuance. Utilizing a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with macro factors, including macroeconomic variables, the study estimates changes in the yield curve resulting from both increased issuance and buy-backs. Empirical analysis reveals that a 1 trillion KRW increase in government bond issuance leads to a 2.5 to 2.9 basis points rise in yields, particularly pronounced in the medium to long-term maturities. Conversely, a 1 trillion KRW increase in government bond buy-backs results in a 1.9 to 2.1 basis points decrease in yields, with a more significant impact on medium to long-term maturities with relatively less demand.

Moving on to domestic demand factors, the study examines the influence of macroprudential regulations on government bond yields. Specifically, it analyzes the impact of restrictions on securities firms' participation in the call market and banking sector liquidity regulations, such as the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR). These regulations, introduced to maintain stability in financial systems post-global financial crisis, have direct and indirect effects on government bond demand, consequently influencing market interest rates and resource allocation.

The analysis indicates that restricting securities firms' call market participation to below 25% of equity leads to a substantial increase in securities firms' participation in the repo market. Consequently, the demand for government bonds by securities firms increases, resulting in a yield decrease of approximately 10.8 to 12.5 basis points. Similarly, the phased introduction of LCR regulations leads to increased demand for government bonds by banks, contributing to a yield decrease of around 6.1 to 7.3 basis points. These findings underscore the importance of considering the ripple effects on financial markets through government bond demand when adjusting the intensity of financial stability regulations.

Lastly, the study examines the impact of external uncertainties, represented by global volatility (VIX), on foreign capital flows and exchange rates. Traditionally, an increase in VIX corresponds to capital outflows and currency depreciation. However, recent observations indicate a decrease in the magnitude of these effects, suggesting a shift in the behavior of foreign investors in government bonds. The study concludes by highlighting the need to consider the potential effects on financial markets through government bond demand when adjusting or introducing financial stability regulations in the future.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Enhancing the Prudential Framework for Securities Firms

Despite increasing risk exposure from expanding assets and leverage among large securities firms, the current Net Capital Ratio (NCR) framework does not adequately capture these risks. To strengthen risk sensitivity while maintaining a balance between financial soundness and industry growth, the NCR formula for large securities firms should revert to its pre-2016 structure, and a differentiated regulatory approach tailored to business scope and risk characteristics should apply to small- and medium-sized firms.

- As securities firms continue to grow rapidly in both asset size and functional scope, concerns have been raised that the current NCR framework may not adequately reflect the risks associated with this expansion, potentially creating regulatory gaps with implications for financial stability.

- The IMA system, scheduled for end-2025, is expected to expand short-term funding capacity at large securities firms, potentially reinforcing further growth in asset size and market influence.

- The March 2020 margin call episode provides a clear illustration of how prudential vulnerabilities at securities firms can propagate across the broader financial system.

- Led by large securities firms, assets and leverage have expanded rapidly, accompanied by increased derivatives investment and growing reliance on shortterm funding instruments, including RP and shortterm notes.

- In 2016, Korea revised the NCR formula, shifting the prudential orientation for securities firms from agoing-concern to a goneconcern basis.

- Under the current NCR framework, rising leverage is not adequately reflected in the indicator, weakening its role as a warning signal.

- The systemic importance of large securities firms has steadily increased alongside their expanding assets and leverage.

- To accurately reflect the risks associated with asset and leverage expansion at large securities firms, the NCR formula should return to “net operating capital ÷ total risk.”

- Regulatory intensity should vary with firm size and business characteristics to balance financial stability with market dynamism.

- As the scale and functional scope of securities firms expand, NCR reform should be the starting point for broader regulatory reforms to preempt the excessive accumulation of systemic risk.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Strengthening Macroprudential Management for Non-Bank Financial Institutions in Korea: Focusing on the Issuance of Equity-Linked Securities (ELS)

This study proposes measures to strengthen macroprudential management for non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), such as securities firms and insurers, whose importance has grown since the 2008~2009 Global Financial Crisis. Major economies and international financial institutions have actively discussed and pursued new or enhanced supervisory and regulatory frameworks for managing NBFI-related systemic risk.

Using ΔCoVaR, a leading systemic risk metric capturing changes in conditional value at risk, this study analyzes the evolution of systemic risk among South Korea’s banks, securities firms, insurers, and individual financial institutions during major financial shocks, including the Global Financial Crisis, the European Debt Crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings reveal substantial increases in systemic risk across all sectors during each crisis, with banking generally exhibiting the highest levels. Sectoral differences varied, with risk for securities firms surging during the March 2020 margin call event, markedly narrowing the gap with banks compared to previous crises.

The study further empirically examines the impact of Equity-Linked Securities (ELS) issuance by financial institutions on systemic risk (ΔCoVaR). Results indicate that increased ELS issuance contributed significantly to heightened systemic risk during the Global Financial Crisis, the European Debt Crisis, and the COVID-19 crisis. These findings underscore the growing importance of NBFIs in macroprudential management and call for systematic monitoring with enhanced regulatory oversight of the non-bank financial sector.

Summary

Policy Study KOR CBDC-based New Banking System, Bank Runs, and Efficient Allocation

Digital financial innovation drives the development of the financial industry, offering new benefits to financial consumers. However, as demonstrated by the 2023 bank run involving Silicon Valley Bank, it also heightens the risk of digital bank runs. In exploring how to prevent bank runs while ensuring the efficiency of financial intermediation, this study examines a new banking system proposed in Europe, the CBDC next-level model: A central bank issues retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to monopolize demand deposit-taking and supply these funds as pass-through funding to commercial banks. In turn, banks provide loans to private borrowers using these funds. This system removes barriers to entry in the loan market to allow for free competition among commercial banks, fintechs, and Big Tech companies, thereby introducing perfect competition. Rigorous theoretical analysis in this study shows that this novel system could eliminate bank runs while achieving socially optimal levels of financial intermediation. Nonetheless, this model also presents some limitations, such as the centralization of personal information by the central bank and the potential political influence over lending decisions.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Digital Payment Innovation and Financial Consumer Protection

○ Even with weak legislative support, the digital economy is gaining momentum, propelled by the recent progress in contactless financial services and digital finance’s growing convergence with other sectors.
- As the primary legal framework for digital finance, the Electronic Financial Transactions Act (EFTA) had an amendment proposal in November 2020, but the bill is still pending at the National Assembly.
- Despite its vital importance in the Korean economy as a legal foundation for financial innovation, the EFTA has remained largely intact since its enactment in 2006 and has not been sufficient institutional support for critical technological changes like the rise of fintech and big tech.

○ Key point of the amendment is opening up payment services to non-banking financial institutions, such as tech firms (big tech) and credit card firms.
- Payment services are an essential amenity in our everyday life, encompassing payment for goods and services, cash deposit and withdrawal, salary transfer, domestic and foreign remittance, and utility bill payment.
- The amendment bill introduces a license of Comprehensive Payment Service Provider (CPSP), which is allowed to provide all payment services by directly offering a checking account like banks.
- Once the bill passes, some big tech firms as well as conventional nonbank financial institutions like credit card issuers are expected to get the license of CPSP.

○ The significance of payment services lies in that this sector is the basis for nonbank entities to expand into other areas, such as banking, insurance, and financial investment in the mid-to-long term.
- Because every economic activity involves the act of paying, CPSPs can accumulate vast user data.
- Also, these operators can bring in a massive amount of funds that customers deposit for payment transfers. Such funds can be used to launch new customized investment products or expand their business to other financial markets.

○ In the longer term, opening up digital payment services may thrust the financial industry to the next level by stimulating competition from within.
- A single app or metaverse platform is all it takes for users to carry out the whole array of financial services and e-commerce, not to mention payment transfers. Also foreseeable are crumbling barriers between different subsectors within the broad financial sector and spurring competition across the entire industry.

○ Some are rather pessimistic about the open-up because they perceive it as flinging open the door of banking; however, this study does not regard it as harming financial stability.
- The required regulatory level should be on par with banking regulations when deeming CPSPs as banks, but as nonbank payment service providers the degree of restrictiveness and protection would decrease.
- This study views the core function of banks as financial intermediation, which transfers customer deposits into illiquid loans. Since payment service operators cannot provide loans, it is reasonable to regard them as nonbank payment institutions (refer to Chapter 4).

○ On the other hand, financial consumer protection remains crucial agenda.
- Since most payment service users place their funds in demand deposit accounts, protecting these funds and guaranteeing service users’ rights are critical.
- The amendment bill contains some protective measures, but in the UK, where a similar scheme has been in operation, several payment service providers went bankrupt without returning customer funds.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR A Study on Insurance Resolution

This study theoretically and empirically analyzes key issues to be considered in improving the resolution system for insolvent insurance companies and offers policy implications. The coming adoption of the new International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 17 as well as enforcement of the new capital regulation named Korean-Insurance Capital Stand (K-ICS) will likely expose the latent risk factors in domestic insurance firms and harm their financial soundness. Although a sudden, large rise in bankruptcy filings is improbable, there should be a sound institutional framework that could effectively handle the insolvency resolution in case of a default or bankruptcy of insurance firms considering the importance of the insurance industry in the financial system.

The existing approach for insolvency resolution heavily relies on government support. When an insurance company collapsed in the past, Korea usually responded with the "total portfolio transfer" (or run-off) method. In other words, a reinsurer assumed and accepted the insolvent insurer's contracts without modifications, and in the process, the government provided support like financial bailouts for the losses incurred to the reinsurer. The drawback of this government-dependent process is that it may lead to moral hazards among insurance policyholders and carriers and a fiscal burden to the government. That way, insurance consumers are not sufficiently motivated to care for the financial soundness of their insurers, and thus, the insurers have little incentive to improve their financial health. As a result, the government's fiscal burden increases as the probability and severity of insolvency grow.

The empirical analysis in this study also shows that insurance companies worldwide are highly reliant on their government. Per the analysis, should their countries' sovereign credit rating drop, so will the financial soundness of these insurers due to the accompanying reduction in the government's tacit protection for the insurance carriers. The insurance industry exhibits greater dependence on government in countries like Korea in particular, whose fiscal soundness is projected to deteriorate henceforth, or that do not issue a reserve currency, or whose insurance industry is large relative to the size of the national economy or public finance. The lesson learned is that Korea needs to improve its insolvency resolution system with stronger vigor.

Therefore, this study suggests the adoption of a new insolvency resolution regime in which policyholders are obliged to share some losses in case an insurance company collapses. As insurers' financial condition will become an important factor for consumers to consider before signing an insurance policy, the new regime can induce insurers to race for better financial health.

However, the loss-sharing regime may trigger a phenomenon called "insurance run," in which policyholders terminate their insurance contracts en masse. When a considerable number of policyholders end their contracts and exit the contractual relations altogether, it may negatively affect the business normalization of the insolvent carrier or the financial fitness of the firm acquiring the bankrupt company. The situation may exacerbate when the exit is more prevalent among relatively low-risk policyholders.

This study recommends the following policy responses in an overview of the theoretical and empirical analysis findings. First, caution should be taken not to seriously damage the continuity of original insurance contracts due to the loss-sharing requirement. In essence, insurance contracts are long-term contracts. Insurance premiums are paid at present to prepare for future insurable accidents. Especially for disease risk later in life, people purchase an insurance policy from a young age. The theoretical analysis revealed that it is desirable to set insurance premiums relative to expected risks, higher for younger and lower for older persons, for maximum social well-being. Thus, this premium structure should not be extensively altered under the loss-sharing regime. In this context, loss-sharing measures geared towards contract termination with less-profitable older policyholders in case an insurance firm goes out of business deserve reconsideration. That is to say, rather than terminating original insurance contracts with insolvent insurers, it would be advisable to keep them with minor modifications such as increasing premiums or reducing indemnity payment amounts in order to retain the contract continuity and share the losses.

Second, the loss-sharing ratio should be set at an appropriate level. The theoretical analysis shows that a higher ratio leads to contrary results: insurance firms can bring in more premium income (or pay less insurance money) from consumers retaining original contracts, but some policyholders bring them to an end. Such a trade-off should be taken into account when setting a proper ratio.

Third, a maximum of 10% requirement for loss sharing seems not to cause serious alarm for an insurance run. According to the survey analysis, it is highly probable that many insurance consumers regard the 10% requirement as lower than anticipated. Accordingly, only a few have expressed the intent to terminate their insurance contracts if so required.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Impact of Lowering the Legal Maximum Interest Rate and Policy Implications

This report estimates the effect of a cut in the legal maximum interest rate on loan application rate, loan approval rate, default probability, a ratio of borrowers whose interest rate is lowered, changes in consumer surplus, and changes in financial institution profits.

To this end, I conduct the structural model estimation to establish a demand model for financial consumers' loan application and repayment and a profit maximization model for financial institutions. After that, based on the estimation results, I present the results of a counter-factual analysis for each scenario of lowering the legal maximum interest rate and each scenario of raising the funding rate.

In all scenarios where the maximum interest rate is cut by 2%p from the 24% level to the 10% level, the reduction in consumer surplus of borrowers excluded from the market exceeds the increase in consumer surplus of borrowers whose interest rates decrease. Accordingly, further lowering of the legal maximum interest rate from the 24% level causes an average decrease in consumer surplus. On the other hand, the financial institution's profit also decreases in all scenarios. In addition, even when the funding interest rate increases at the fixed legal maximum interest rate level, consumer surplus decreases as the number of borrowers excluded from the market increases.

This means that the current policy support is essential to minimize the side effects of lowering the legal maximum interest rate. Also, the fact that an additional number of borrowers is excluded from the market when the funding rate of financial institutions rises implies the need to introduce a legal maximum interest rate system linked to the market interest rate.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Does Fiscal Instability Cause Financial Instability?

This study analyzes the impact of fiscal instability on the soundness of financial institutions. The IMF's long-term fiscal outlook (2021) forecasts Korea's public finances to weaken over the medium to long term. Deteriorating fiscal stability may undermine the soundness of the financial sector by way of the financing channels of government bonds and guarantees. Through an empirical analysis, this study finds that the higher the risk of sovereign default, as measured by credit default swap (CDS) premiums on government bonds, the higher the risk of bank default, as measured by bank bonds CDS premiums. Moreover, this study looks at other countries sharing similar fiscal and financial features as Korea―without reserve currencies, greater banking sector size relative to national revenue, and huge private sector credit that is rapidly expanding― and finds that for such countries, bank default risk is further amplified when sovereign default risk increases.

The analysis results may have two policy implications. Firstly, it is necessary to build up fiscal soundness, and this is an indispensable policy agenda item for the Korean economy to pursue over the longer term. Secondly, the banking sector needs to become less reliant on public finances and more self-sufficient. In case of a bank failure in contingencies, it is desirable to adopt a bail-in system that requires creditors to share the losses to rescue the defaulted financial institutions rather than bail-out, which provides relief at the expense of government revenue.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Introduction of Internet-Only Banks: Effects and Policy Tasks

This study examines the results of competition promotion in the banking industry due to the introduction of internet-only banks through empirical analysis. It discusses the direction that internet-only banks should pursue to improve consumer welfare in the future through overseas case studies.

The empirical analysis can be divided into two parts. First, this study examines whether the introduction of internet-only banks improved the inclusiveness of the credit loan market in the banking sector. To this end, we determine whether borrowers who were previously unable to receive credit loans from the banking sector increase the probability of successful lending to the banking sector after internet-only banks are introduced. Next, we examine whether the introduction of internet-only banks increased competition in the banking sector’s credit loan market and decreased the interest rate corresponding to the price of loan products.

The above two analyzes find that the introduction of the internet-only bank significantly improved the tolerance of the banking sector loan market, and at the same time, contributed to the drop in interest rates in the banking sector loan market. However, these benefits also tend to be biased towards borrowers with high credit ratings.

The analysis results provide two policy implications.

First, as the purpose of the introduction, internet-only banks need to expand the information combination system to use unstructured information to enhance credit evaluation capabilities. With the recent passage of the Data 3 Act, the legal and institutional framework for using unstructured information in credit evaluation has been laid and as such, the effectiveness of this new system should be bolstered. Next, it is essential that incentives are introduced to induce internet-only banks to focus on the credit loan market rather than the already saturated mortgage market.

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