한국개발연구 2008년 I호 - KDI 한국개발연구원 - 연구 - 보고서
본문 바로가기

KDI 한국개발연구원

KDI 한국개발연구원

SITEMAP

KDI 정책연구 한국개발연구 2008년 I호 2008.06.30

표지

Series No. 제30권 제1호(통권 제102호) / 2008. I

KDI 정책연구 한국개발연구 2008년 I호

2008.06.30

  • KDI
    한국개발연구원
국문요약
수익변동성 확대와 설비투자 위축(임경묵)

외환위기 이후 우리나라 기업의 설비투자가 부진한 모습을 보이면서 기업을 둘러싼 경영환경의 불확실성 증대로 인해 이러한 현상이 초래되었다는 주장이 있다. 본 연구는 우리나라 기업이 직면하는 불확실성을 수익성의 변동성으로 측정하고 이를 토대로 불확실성의 증대 여부 및 불확실성이 투자에 미친 영향을 분석하였다. 분석 결과에 따르면 1994년에 3%중반에 머무르고 있던 우리나라 기업 수익의 변동성은 최근 5%를 소폭 상회하는 수준으로 확대되었다. 이에 더하여 우리나라 기업의 수익 변동성은 제조업, 비제조업 및 대기업, 중소기업으로 분류할 경우에도 모두 증가한 것으로 나타나고 있으며, 세부산업별로도 대부분의 경우 확대된 것으로 나타났다. 이렇게 확대된 변동성은 우리나라 기업의 설비투자 증가세를 위축시키고 있는 것으로 분석되었으며, 투자 결정에 있어서 변동성이 미치는 영향은 외환위기 이후 증가한 것으로 나타났다.


경제위기 이후 한국경제의 성장: 성장회계 및 성장회귀 분석(한진희·신석하)

본 연구는 경제위기 이후 한국경제의 성장 둔화의 요인을 살펴보고, 국제비교적 관점에서 위기 이후의 성장 성과를 평가해 보았다. 수량변수 및 가격변수를 이용한 성장회계 분석 결과는 경제위기 이후 급격한 성장 둔화가 주로 노동자 1인당 자본축적의 둔화에 의해 설명되는 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 경제위기 이후 2001~05년 기간 중 총요소생산성 증가율은 경제위기 이전인 1991~95년 시기에 비해 다소 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 한편 외환위기 이후 한국경제의 성장 둔화는 전 세계적 성장 둔화라는 시대적 요인과 동아시아 지역 고유의 요인에 대부분 기인한 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 자본축적의 둔화는 동아시아 지역 고유 요인에 주로 기인한 것으로 분석되었다. 국제비교적 관점에서 볼 때 전반적으로 위기 이후 한국경제의 성장 성과는 생산성 향상 및 자본축적이라는 측면에서 부정적으로만 평가하기는 어려운 것으로 보인다.


사적소득이전과 노후소득보장(김희삼)

본 연구는 그동안 사회적 안전망이 미흡한 가운데 우리나라의 고령인구 부양에 중요한 역할을 해온 사적소득이전에 대한 미시적 분석을 통해 향후 노후소득보장정책에 시사점을 제공하고 있다. 한국노동패널 자료에 따르면, 만 60세 이상 노인가구주 세대의 다섯 가구 중 두 가구는 매월 자식들로부터 생활비 등의 경제적 도움을 받고 있는 것으로 조사되었으며, 공공부조 등 공적소득이전은 사적소득이전을 구축하는 효과를 가진 것으로 나타났다. 또한 지금까지는 사적이전이 공적이전보다 빈곤완화효과가 큰 것으로 나타났지만, 외환위기 후 복지지출의 확대와 함께 공적이전의 비중이 대폭 높아져, 공적이전을 주 소득원으로 살아가는 만 60세 이상 고령자는 2003년 기준으로 약 4분의 1에 달하는 것으로 조사되었다. 그러나 같은 해 기준으로 국민기초생활보장제도의 보호지정을 실질적으로 필요로 하면서도 수급권에서 배제된 것으로 추정되는 노인가구주 세대는 약 12%로서, 이들 가구의 빈곤 해소를 위해서는 예산 확보와 함께 사각지대를 없애기 위한 전달체계 개선이 필요할 것으로 보인다. 이처럼 여전히 광범한 빈곤노인계층이 존재하는 한편, 고령인구에 대한 사적 부양이 공적 부양으로 전환되면서 재정건전성이 우려되고 있는 현 상황에서 소득재분배의 효과가 적고 경직적 비용부담이 큰 보편급여의 확대보다는 취약노인계층에 대한 집중적인 지원을 강화할 필요가 있을 것이다.


근로장려세제의 최적 설계에 관한 연구(유한욱)

본 연구는 제도설계(mechanism design)이론을 이용하여 근로연계복지의 주요 정책수단인 근로장려세제의 최적화를 시도하고, 도출된 최적해의 특성을 바탕으로 곧 시행될 우리나라 근로장려세제 개선방향을 제시하기 위해 수행되었다. 분석결과에 따르면, 시행안에 제시된 급여구조를 수정하는 것이 바람직한 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 주어진 예산제약하에서 근로장려세제의 노동공급 증대효과를 극대화하기 위해서는 점증률을 점감률보다 높게 설정하는 한편, 점감구간 소득상한은 상향조정하여야 한다. 최적해의 비교정태분석 결과에 따르면, 근로장려세제는 소득(임금)분포에 따라 다르게 설계하는 것이 바람직하기 때문에 가구규모 및 취업형태별로 수혜대상을 나누어 각기 다른 급여구조를 적용해야 하며, 이는 향후 근로장려세제의 적용대상이 무자녀가구 및 자영업자가구로 확대될 것임을 고려할 때 시사하는 바가 크다.


대공황에 대한 고등학교 사회과 교과서 서술의 문제점과 개선방안(김두얼)

대공황은 20세기의 가장 중요한 역사적 사건 중 하나로, 현재 고등학교 사회과 교과서들은 근대 경제의 형성과 관련해서 대공황을 비중 있게 다루고 있다. 하지만 대공황에 대한 교과서의 서술들을 분석해 보면, 부실한 논리 전개나 틀린 사실의 수록, 나아가 교육적으로 부적절한 표현들을 실은 사례가 다수 발견된다. 궁극적으로는 교과서들이 제시하고 있는 대공황에 대한 목적론적 해석, 즉 자유방임주의 혹은 시장의 본원적 불안정성으로 인해 과잉생산이 초래되어 대공황이 발생하였으며, 국가개입을 통해 대공황이 해소되었다는 해석 자체가 경제사학자들의 연구 결과와 부합하지 않는다. 사회와 역사에 대한 균형 잡힌 인식의 함양이라는 사회교과의 목적을 위해서는 대공황에 대한 서술을 근본적으로 개선하는 작업이 요구된다.
영문요약
수익변동성 확대와 설비투자 위축(임경묵)
Impacts of Increasing Volatility of Profitability on Investment Behavior(Kyung-Mook LIM)

Various opinions have been suggested to explain the slump in equipment investment, such as increased government regulations, shareholder-oriented management by expanded foreign equity investment, response against M&A threats, conservative investment trends seen after a series of bankruptcy of large conglomerates (amidst crumbling myth of "Too Big to Fail"), and financial restructuring. Some also argued that the increased uncertainty in business environment is mainly responsible for conservative management, though there are few domestic studies made regarding the situation. But, in other countries, including the U.S., studies have shown that more volatility is seen now surrounding stock prices, profitability, and sales growth rate reflecting business performance. Also, there are other studies showing such expanded volatility have led to conservative management by businesses. In this regard, this study reviews the volatility conditions of business performance of Korean companies based on profitability, and then attempts to analyze the impact on investment brought on by increased volatility. Each company’s profitability volatility used here is from the standard deviation of companies for the past five years. As a profitability indicator, the ROA (= operating profit/total asset) is used. According to the analysis, profitability volatility has remarkably increased from the mid 3% in 1994 to low 5% in 2005. Profitability volatility of the Korean companies has expanded to a great extent since the financial crisis. The crisis might have served to raise the volatility in the macroeconomic conditions. If increased volatility observed during the economic crisis had gradually declined after the crisis, the situation could be interpreted as a temporary phenomenon, not to be too concerned over. But, this was not the case for Korea. The volatility level, after the crisis, has not dropped back to its pre-crisis level. Hence, in the Korea’s case, high volatility cannot be explained by the impact of financial crisis. Not only that, the fact that such expansion is seen in every industrial sector indicates that this phenomenon cannot be explained by the composition change of industries alone. An undergoing study shows that with a rapid spread of globalization, industries fiercely competing with China experience more volatility. Such increased volatility tends to contract investment, and since the crisis the impact of volatility on investment has slightly increased.

It is noteworthy that this study only includes a part of ‘uncertainty’ that could be measured statistically. For instance, the profitability volatility indicator used in this study is unable to reflect all the effects that the tacit reduction of protection by the government or regulations might have made. So, the result here also indicates that other ‘uncertain’ factors not mentioned in this study may have served to contract investment sentiment. It would be impossible for policies to completely remove uncertainties measured by profitability volatility, but at least it is necessary to put effort to reduce the macroeconomic volatility in the future economic management. Stabilized macroeconomic management may not be enough to diminish all volatility that occurs within each company, but it would make a meaningful contribution in encouraging investment.


경제위기 이후 한국경제의 성장: 성장회계 및 성장회귀 분석(한진희·신석하)
Understanding Post-Crisis Growth of the Korean Economy: Growth Accounting and Cross-Country Regressions (Hahn, ChinHee · Shin, Sukha)

This paper examines sources of growth of Korea’s economy for the period from 1980 to 2005, based on both primal and dual growth accounting methodology employed by Young (1995) and Hsieh (2002). Also, this paper evaluates post-crisis growth performance of Korea, using cross-country comparison of growth accounting results and cross-country regressions. Main results of this paper are as follows. First, the growth slowdown after the crisis has been mainly driven by the slowdown of per worker capital accumulation. By contrast, the estimated TFPG of Korea for the period from 2001 to 2005 seems higher than, or at least roughly comparable to, the estimated TFPG in the pre-crisis period of 1991-1995. In theses respects, there were no substantial differences between the results obtained from primal and dual growth accounting methodology. Second, the cross-country regressions revealthat post-crisis growth slowdown of the Korea’s economy can be largely attributed to world growth slowdown (decade effect) and East Asia-specific effects. In particular, it was found that the noticeable decelerationin per worker capital accumulation can be mostly attributed to some unknown factors which commonly affected East Asian countries. Viewed from an international perspective, the lowered post-crisis per worker GDP growth rate, as well as per-worker capital growth, which triggered concerns and debates in varying contexts, still seems respectable. So, the slowdown in capital accumulation is likely to be mainly a story of spectacularly high rate of capital accumulation in the pre-crisis period, not a story of ‘weak’ investment after the crisis.


사적소득이전과 노후소득보장(김희삼)
Private Income Transfers and Old-Age Income Security
(Kim, Hisam)

Using data from the Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (KLIPS), this study investigates private income transfers in Korea, where adult children have undertaken the most responsibility of supporting their elderly parents without well-established social safety net for the elderly. According to the KLIPS data, three out of five households provided some type of support for their aged parents and two out of five households of the elderly received financial support from their adult children on a regular base. However, the private income transfers in Korea are not enough to alleviate the impact of the fall in the earned income of those who retired and are approaching an age of needing financial assistance from external source. The monthly income of those at least the age of 75, even with the earning of their spouses, is below the staggering amount of 450,000 won, which indicates that the elderly in Korea are at high risk of poverty.

In order to analyze microeconomic factors affecting the private income transfers to the elderly parents, the following three samples extracted from the KLIPS data are used: a sample of respondents of age 50 or older with detailed information on their financial status; a five-year household panel sample in which their unobserved family-specific and time-invariant characteristics can be controlled by the fixed-effects model; and a sample of the younger split-off household in which characteristics of both the elderly household and their adult children household can be controlled simultaneously. The results of estimating private income transfer models using these samples can be summarized as follows. First, the dominant motive lies on the children-to-parent altruistic relationship. Additionally, another is based on exchange motive, which is paid to the elderly parents who take care of their grandchildren. Second, the amount of private income transfers has negative correlation with the income of the elderly parents, while being positively correlated with the income of the adult children. However, its income elasticity is not that high. Third, the amount of private income transfers shows a pattern of reaching the highest level when the elderly parents are in the age of 75 years old, following a decreasing pattern thereafter. Fourth, public assistance, such as the National Basic Livelihood Security benefit, appears to crowd out private transfers.

Private transfers have fared better than public transfers in alleviating elderly poverty, but the role of public transfers has been increasing rapidly since the welfare expansion after the financial crisis in the late 1990s, so that one of four elderly people depends on public transfers as their main income source in 2003. As of the same year, however, there existed and occupied 12% of the elderly households those who seemed eligible for the National Basic Livelihood benefit but did not receive any public assistance. To remove elderly poverty, government may need to improve welfare delivery system as well as to increase welfare budget for the poor. In the face of persistent elderly poverty and increasing demand for public support for the elderly, which will lead to increasing government debt, welfare policy needs targeting toward the neediest rather than expanding universal benefits that have less effect of income redistribution and heavier cost. Identifying every disadvantaged elderly in dire need for economic support and providing them with the basic livelihood security would be the most important and imminent responsibility that we all should assume to prepare for the growing aged population, and this also should accompany measures to utilize the elderly workforce with enough capability and strong will to work.


근로장려세제의 최적 설계에 관한 연구(유한욱)
A Study on the Optimal EITC Program(Hanwook Yoo)

Korea's public assistance system, represented by NBLS(National Basic livelihood Security), has disclosed critical problems despite the rapid increase in its budget, such as decreasing work incentive and deepening welfare trap. These typical problems of classical welfare system have been commonly witnessed in many other advanced countries. Therefore a number of efforts have been exerted to correct these problems by transferring the existing welfare system into a welfare-to-work(or workfare) system, and the most common one of such efforts is introducing the EITC(Earned Income Tax Credit)-type programs. They have already been implemented in many countries such as the USA, the UK and France, also Korean government decided to launch EITC program in 2009.

This paper aims to propose some measures to improve Korean EITC program. For this, an optimization problem is constructed from the government's viewpoint. Optimal EITC program is defined to be a solution to the problem - a combination of phase-in rate, phase-out rate, and maximum credit that maximizes labor supply increase under a exogenously given budget constraint. Using a mechanism design analysis, we derive and characterize the optimal EITC program. Analysis results implies that Korean EITC structure needs to be modified so that phase-in rate is larger than phase-out rate and the upper limit of phase-out range becomes larger. Comparative static analysis results show that the feature of the optimal EITC program is sensitive to the change of income distribution, suggesting that if beneficiaries are categorized into different income groups, then it is desirable to apply distinctive EITC programs to each group.


대공황에 대한 고등학교 사회과 교과서 서술의 문제점과 개선방안(김두얼)
The Great Depression in High School Social Science Textbooks: Critiques and Suggestions(Duol Kim)

The Great Depression is one of the most important economic incidents in the twentieth century. A significant and long-lasting impact of this event is the rise of the government intervention to the economy. Under the catastrophic downturn of the economic condition worldwide, people required their government to play an active role for economic recovery, and this mentalite prolonged even after the Second World War.

Social science textbooks taught at Korean high schools mostly referred to the Great Depression for explaining the reason of government intervention in economy. However, the mainstream view commonly found in the textbooks provides a misleading theological interpretation. It argues that inherent flaws of the market economy causes over-production/under-consumption, and that this mismatch ends up with economic crisis. The chaotic situation was resolved by substitution of the governments for the market, and the New Deal was introduced as the monumental example (‘laissez-faire economy →over-production→the Great Depression→government intervention→economic recovery’).

Based on economic historians’ researches for past three decades, I argue that this mainstream view commits the fallacy of ex-post justification. Unlike what the mainstream view claims, the Great Depression was neither the result of the ‘market failure’, nor the recovery from the Great Depression but was due to successful government policies.

For substantiating this claim, I suggest three points. First, blaming the weakness or instability of the market economy as the cause of the Great Depression is groundless. Unlike what the textbooks describe, the rise of the U.S. stock price during the 1920s cannot be said as a bubble, and there was no sign of under-consumption during the 1920s. On the contrary, a new consensus emerging from the 1980s among economic historians illustrates that the Great Depression was originated from ‘the government failure’ rather than from the ‘market failure’. Policymakers of European countries tried to return to the gold standard regime before the First World War, but discrepancies between this policy and the reality made the world economy vulnerable.

Second, the mainstream view identifies the New Deal as Keynesian interventionism and glorifies it for saving the U.S. economy from the crisis. However, this argument is not true. The New Deal was not Keynesian at all. What the U.S. government actually tried was not macroeconomic stabilization but price and quantity control. In addition, New Deal did not brought about economic recovery that people generally believe. Even after the New Deal, industrial production or employment level remained quite low until the late 1930s. Lastly, studies on individual New Deal policies show that they did not work as they were intended. For example, the National Industrial Recovery Act increased unemployment, and the Agricultural Adjustment Act expelled tenants from their land.

Third, the mainstream view characterizes the economic order before the Great Depression as laissez-faire, and it tends to attribute all the vice during the Industrial Revolution era to the uncontrolled market economy. However, historical studies show that various economic and social problems of the Industrial Revolution period such as inequality problems, child labor, or environmental problems cannot be simply ascribed to the problems of the market economy.

In conclusion, the remedy for all these problems in high school textbooks is not to use the Great Depression as an example showing the weakness of the market economy. The Great Depression should be introduced simply as a historical momentum that had initiated the growth of government intervention. This reform of high school textbooks is imperative for enhancing the right understanding of economy and history.
목차
수익변동성 확대와 설비투자 위축(임경묵)

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 기존 연구 개관

Ⅲ. 기업 수익변동성 변화 추이

 1. 수익변동성 추정방법
 2. 변동성 지표의 추이

Ⅳ. 기업의 수익변동성과 투자

 1. 기초자료 분석
 2. 기업의 수익변동성과 투자의 관계

Ⅴ. 결론 및 시사점

참고문헌

경제위기 이후 한국경제의 성장: 성장회계 및 성장회귀 분석(한진희·신석하)

Ⅰ. 문제의 제기

Ⅱ. 성장 둔화의 근인: 한국경제의 성장회계 분석

 1. 방법론 및 자료
 2. 국내총생산에 대한 성장 회계
 3. 1인당 GDP에 대한 성장 회계
 4. 산업별 성장회계: 제조업, 서비스업, 기타산업
 5. 소 결

Ⅲ. 국제비교적 관점에서 본 외환위기 이후 한국경제의 성장

 1. 성장회계 결과의 국제비교
 2. 성장회귀 분석을 통해 본 위기 이후 한국경제의 성장

Ⅳ. 요약 및 시사점

참고문헌

사적소득이전과 노후소득보장(김희삼)

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 연구 내용 및 방법

 1. 선행연구와의 관계
 2. 분석자료 및 분석방법

Ⅲ. 노부모에 대한 소득이전의 실태

Ⅳ. 노부모에 대한 소득이전의 결정요인

 1. 노부모 측 관련 변수 분석
 2. 자식 측 관련 변수 분석
 3. 노부모와 분가자식가구 분석

Ⅴ. 소득이전과 노후소득보장

 1. 사적이전과 공공부조의 노인가구 빈곤완화효과
 2. 노인가구에 대한 공공부조의 사각지대와 누수구
 3. 노부모 부양 패턴의 변화와 노후소득보장의 방향

Ⅵ. 요약 및 결론

근로장려세제의 최적 설계에 관한 연구(유한욱)

I. 연구의 배경 및 목적

Ⅱ. EITC형 제도의 해외사례

 1. 미국: EITC
 2. 영국: WTC
 3. 프랑스: PPE
 4. 각국의 EITC형 제도 비교

Ⅲ. 우리나라 근로장려세제의 평가

 1. 근로장려세제의 현황
 2. 근로장려세제의 평가

Ⅳ. 근로장려세제의 정책방향

 1. EITC형 제도가 노동공급에 미치는 효과
 2. 최적 근로장려세제에 대한 이론분석

V. 결 론

 1. 요약 및 시사점
 2. 한계점 및 향후 과제

참 고 문 헌

대공황에 대한 고등학교 사회과 교과서 서술의 문제점과 개선방안(김두얼)

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 사회과 교과서의 대공황 해석

Ⅲ. 대공황에 대한 교과서 주류 해석의 문제점

 1. 대공황의 원인
 2. 뉴딜 정책과 경제회복
 3. ‘자유방임주의’에 대한 서술의 문제점

Ⅳ. 대공황 관련 내용의 개선방안

Ⅴ. 결 어

참 고 문 헌

The Development of Venture Capital Industry and the Role of Government in Korea: Venture Boom vs. Post-boom(이수일)

1. Introduction

2. Venture Capital Industry in Korea

 2.1 Venture Capital Firm as a Corporation
 2.2 Current Status of Venture Capital Industry in Korea
 2.3 Characteristics of Venture Capital Industry in Korea

3. Data

4. Fund-raising and the Role of the Government

 4.1 Size of the Government Capital Commitments
 4.2 Private Sector’s Responsiveness to the Government Capital
 Commitments

5. Venture Investment and the Role of Government

 5.1 Government Participation and Changes in the Investment Behaviors of Outside Funds
 5-2 Finding Evidence on the Hypothesis: Comparison of Inside Funds and Outside Funds

6. Conclusion

References

공공누리

한국개발연구원의 본 저작물은 “공공누리 제3유형 : 출처표시 + 변경금지” 조건에 따라 이용할 수 있습니다. 저작권정책 참조

담당자
미디어운영팀윤정애 전문연구원 044-550-4450
이 페이지에서 제공하는 정보에 대하여 만족하시나요?
네이버로그인
카카오로그인
보안문자 확인

무단등록 및 수집 방지를 위해 아래 보안문자를 입력해 주세요.

KDI 직원 정보 확인

담당자 정보를 확인해 주세요.

등록완료

소중한 의견 감사드립니다.

등록실패

잠시 후 다시 시도해주세요.

Join our Newsletter

매일 새로운 소식으로 준비된 KDI 뉴스레터와 함께
다양한 정보를 확인하세요.