빈곤실태 분석을 위한 거시통합모형 개발 : 인구 및 가구구조와 교육수준의 변화가 소득불평등도에 미치는 효과 분석 - KDI 한국개발연구원 - 연구 - 보고서
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정책연구시리즈 빈곤실태 분석을 위한 거시통합모형 개발 : 인구 및 가구구조와 교육수준의 변화가 소득불평등도에 미치는 효과 분석 2005.12.31

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Series No. 2005-08

정책연구시리즈 빈곤실태 분석을 위한 거시통합모형 개발 : 인구 및 가구구조와 교육수준의 변화가 소득불평등도에 미치는 효과 분석 #거시경제모형 #빈곤, 소득 재분배

2005.12.31

  • 프로필
    김용성 선임연구위원
국문요약
본 연구는 앞으로 전개될 경제·사회적 여건의 변화에 따른 소득분배의 영향을 분석하였다. 미래시점의 예상되는 가구주 연령의 고령화, 가구의 소규모화, 교육수준의 고학력화에 따른 분포를 바탕으로 이에 대응하는 소득불평등도를 추정해본 결과 대상 분석기간(2005∼2020년) 동안 총소득의 불평등도(지니계수)는 2005년 0.326에서 2020년 0.330의 소폭 증가에 그치는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 경상소득을 근로소득, 사업 및 부업소득, 기타소득 등의 요소로 나누고 각 요소가 경상소득의 불평등도에 기여하는 정도를 살펴본 결과 경상소득불평등도는 근로소득에 의해 크게 좌우되는 것으로 나타났으며, 이는 근로소득이 경상소득에서 차지하는 비중이 가장 크다는 점에서 당연한 결과로 보인다. 한편 이전소득을 포함하는 기타소득의 경우 경상소득에서 차지하는 비중이 점차 높아질 것으로 예상되었으나 경상소득의 불평등도에 미치는 영향은 상대적으로 크지 않은 것으로 나타났다.
영문요약
Background and Purpose
Recently, there is a growing concern about the relationship between economic growth and distribution. Without fair distribution, economic growth might lead to a greater gap between the rich and the poor.
Under this circumstance, social cohesion is hardly expected and further, eco-nomic growth might not be sustainable. Without a sizable economic growth, income distribution might be improved only after everyone receives less income. In this situation, individual’s economic activities are discouraged and economic competitiveness is lowered. Therefore, the relationship between economic growth and distribution should be complementary to secure economic prosperity.

In the 1970s and 1980s, high economic growth has been accompanied by the improvement of income distribution. As a result, the past economic polices have focused on economic efficiency in order to yield high economic growth. With the outbreak of the foreign currency crisis in the late 1990s, the Korean economy experienced unprecedented massive layoffs and the collapse of the middle class. This social change called for the need for studies on income distribution. Although the analysis on the current situation of income distribution is undeniably important, a study for future income distribution
is equally meaningful. It is particularly true for Korea where the structures of demography, family, and educational attainment are expected to change rapidly. The main focus of this study is to analyze the
impact of socio-economic changes on the future income distribution and this makes the paper distinctive from others.

Main Results
Technological progress, female labor participation, changes in industrial and wage structure, and many other factors determine the shape of income distribution. For a study of income distribution, it is desirable to account for all of variables affecting income distribution. However, due to the limitation of information and of data availability, it is inevitable to restrict into a few variables for the sake of tractability. This study focuses on the effect of population aging, reduction in the family size, and rising education attainment on future income distribution.

According to the official statistics released by the National Statistical Office, the demographic structure will change dramatically in near future as a result of population aging. For example, the proportion of households with household head aged 60 and older is expected to be 10.2% in 2020, rising from 6.8% in 2005. The statistics also expects that the size of a family will gradually get smaller in the future. For example, households consisting of married couple without children will be 24% in 2020 up from 16.7% in 2005. Based on the projection of educational attainment, population with secondary and higher education will increase in the future. For example, among the individuals of 40~44 year olds, 47.7% will hold a college and higher educational degree. Currently, only 18.6% of 40~44 year olds have such degree.

The Household Income and Expenditure Surveys for 2003~04 were reweighted so that the distributions of population, family size and educational level could be as close to those of the periods (2005~20) of the analysis and then income distributions are projected basex on the reweighted samples. To be specific, let’s denote x for the determinants for income y. At time t, the probability density function
for income can be written by f(y|t)=f(y|x)h(x|t), where f(y|x) and h(x|t) are the conditional probability of y given x and the marginal probability of x, respectively. If a re-weighting function is defined as r(t,s)=h(x|s)/h(x|t), then the probability density function of income at time s can be written as f(y|s)=f(y|x)h(x|s)= f(y|x)h(x|t)r(t,s). This equation shows that income distribution at future time s can be reasonably approximated by re-weighting the current sample. The results show that total income inequality measured by the Gini coefficient is expected to slightly rise to 0.330 in 2020 from 0.326 in 2005. Regular income is decomposed by its components such as labor earnings, business income, incomes from asset holding, and transfer income. It turns out that regular income inequality is mostly affected by labor earnings inequality. However, the effect of transfer income on regular income inequality is limited.

Conclusion
This paper analyzes the effect of the socioeconomic changes on the future income distributions. During the periods of the projection (2005~20), total income inequality is expected to rise mildly measured by the Gini coefficient. Also, regular income inequality depends on the labor earning inequality because the latter is a dominant component of the former. While the effect of transfer income on income distribution turns out to be limited in the analysis, it is reasonable to expect that the role of transfer income will be increasingly important to improve income distribution as many social welfare systems
will mature. Finally, it is worth mentioning that the results in this paper are based on many assumptions with no future changes in technological progress, industry and wage structures, and institutional settings at the current level. This implies that one should cautiously interpret the results.
목차
제1장 서 론

제2장 소득분배 관련 선행연구와 현황
 제1절 소득분배에 관한 선행 연구
 제2절 소득분배의 현황

제3장 경제·사회여건의 변화와 소득분배
 제1절 인구구조의 고령화
 제2절 가구구조의 변화
 제3절 교육수준의 변화

제4장 소득분배효과 분석을 위한 계량모형
 제1절 이론적 배경
 제2절 표본 가중치 조정의 결과

제5장 소득분배 추이의 결과

제6장 요약 및 결 론

참고문헌
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