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Projection and Evaluation of Consumption Patterns in Korea, 1976-1991

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  • 저자 Tong Hun Lee
  • 발행일 1977/12/01
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요약 In order to make a more accurate projection of the Korean
consumption pattern, I have introduced a number of new
features in this study. As the basic method, I derived a
non-linear Engel function by assuming that the Engel elasticity
changes with the level of total consumption, and I also
developed a general method of projection consumption patterns
by using such a function. In estimating parameters for
projection, I employed the instrumental variable method to obtain
consistent estimates, thus avoiding the least squares bias present
in other studies. As basic data, I used the new Korean data
obtained by tabulating the original surveys, instead of the
published tables that were found to contain numerical errors.
Also by utilizing the international cross-section data, I obtained
extraneous estimates of the price elasticities and changes in
relative prices, and I used them in estimating their effects on
consumption patterns in Korea. Finally, to incorporate the effects
of population shifts and behavioral differences among different
strata of consumers, separate projections were made for each
stratum(farmers, self-employed businessmen and wage-and
-salary earners) and the resulting projections were aggregated
for all classed of consumers.

The results, thus obtained, showed that consumption
patterns in Korea will change drastically in the nest 15 years.
The consumption of durable goods and that of services will rise,
respectively, much faster than the consumption of non-durable
goods with the result that the relative importance of these goods
will shift completely by 1991. Such increases in the demands for
durable goods and services will rise not only from the consumer
response to a rising level of income but also from the
institutional changes that are likely to occur. In addition, the
secular changes in relative prices will shift the Korean
consumption pattern ever further. Thus, the consumption pattern
of Korea in 1991 will become more like that of an advanced
Western industrial country such as the current West Germany.
A drastic shift such as this in the Korean consumption pattern
may bring forth policy questions as to whether some luxurious
consumption items should be restrained by special consumption
taxes of other regulatory constraints. However, in general, such
a shift will provide diversified domestic market for the varieties
of goods that will for Korea. Furthermore, the increasing
importance of services in Korea's consumption will reduce the
relative importance of imports for consumption, thereby reducing
the need for the rapid export growth assumed for economic
development.

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