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Working Paper

Sources of Industrial Growth and Structural Change in Korea

페이스북
커버이미지
  • 저자 김광석(金光錫)
  • 발행일 1977/04/01
  • 시리즈 번호 7703
원문보기
요약 The purpose of this paper was to analyze the sources of
industrial growth and structural change in terms of the relative
contributions of demand factors, import substitution and
technological change. For this purpose, we have relied not on a
single method but three alternative ; Chenery, Shishido and
Watanabe(1962), Syrqin(1976), and Balassa(1976). The data base
for the analysis is the input-output tables for 1955, 1963, 1970
and 1973, which have been reclassified and deflated into 1968
constant world prices I-O dat at the 29 or 43 sector level of
classification. The decomposed by both CSW and Syequin
methods that attempt to explain the sources of deviations if
sectoral outputs from a proportional growth path produced
similar results, somewhat different from the results of the other
two methods, since it measures the sources of absolute increase
in output, rather than deviations from the proportional growth.

Despite the similarities and differences among the results by
three alternative methods, all the results indicate that domestic
demand and export expansions were the two major factors thar
contributing to growth and structural change over the eighteen
years period(1955-73), while import-substitution and technological
change played a relatively minor role. The results are, however,
influenced by the export-oriented growth of the economy which
began in early sixties. As far as the trade effects are concerned,
we found that import-substitution contribution was quite
substantial and much more important than the contribution of
export expansion over the early period(1953-63). Over the latter
period (1963-73), however, import-substitution contribution
became much less important, while the contribution of export
expansion considerably increased. Such a shift in the relative
contributions of import-substitution and export expansion to the
overall growth and structural change between the two industrial
group or sector.

The factors contributing to non-proportional growth and
structural change in Korea over the period 1955-73 are compared
with those estimated for other selected countries. Since all the
estimated for other countries are mostly obtained by the same
method.

All these indicate that in Korea import-substitution strategy
was pursued in earnest during the early period but was
dramatically shifted to an export-oriented strategy beginning in
early sixties. While other countries appear to have pursued a
relatively more balanced approach toward the choice between
import-substitution and export expansion, Korea seems to have
followed an one-sided policy of import-substitution
industrialization during the early period and that of
export-oriented industrialization during the latter period.
Although it is difficult to judge the merit of this one-sided
approach in the long-run, the more or less one-sided
export-oriented industrialization strategy in Korea has so far
been relatively efficient and generated a rapid growth of GNP
over more than a decade since the early 1960`s.
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