■ This study finds that an increase in external uncertainty per se poses a downside risk to the overall real domestic economy, with exports harder hit than domestic demand.

- According to the analysis, prolonging the recently intensified uncertainties puts sizable downward pressure on the economy, lowering the growth in all industry production by 1.4%p. Even reducing uncertainty in the short run still stunts the growth and brings down its rate by 0.3%p, weighing down the real economy.

- It shows that uncertainties about US monetary policy and Russia’s geopolitical risk hit Korea’s exports harder than its domestic demand.

- Korea’s major industries tightly linked to investment, including computers, electronics, and optical devices, are the most influenced.

■ Since external uncertainty has a considerable impact on the real domestic economy, it is crucial to closely monitor main uncertainties and improve transparency by collecting and sharing relevant information. At the same time, consistent effort is necessary for building and utilizing a response mechanism to safeguard against global supply disruption.

- Providing sufficient information on external risk factors can help mitigate the excessive contraction of economic confidence.

- In addition, there should be ongoing efforts to stabilize the supply and demand for key raw materials and parts while setting up a response mechanism that can achieve a soft landing of shocks and repercussions once downside risks come true.