KDI - Korea Development Institute - RESEARCH - Research Areas

Summary

Policy Study KOR Demographics and Inflation in Korea

This study empirically analyzes Korean data focusing on the impact of the demographic change on the inflation. The analysis indicates that the ongoing aging of the population does not statistically significantly induce inflation in terms of the aggregate price index. However, an analysis of the sub-items of the price index shows that changes in the age composition of the population are associated with sector-specific inflation. Particularly in the service sector, the increase in the population of the young and the elderly appears to have an inflationary effect, while a relative increase in the working-age population seems to be deflationary. In conclusion, this study finds that the relationship between population structure and inflation varies by sector, with a more pronounced correlation in the service sector. This is an analytically significant finding that deserves policy attention. It suggests that policy decisions for price stability should carefully evaluate and distinctively respond to the potential impacts of demographic changes on a sector-by-sector basis.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Work Environment for Work-Family Balance

This study investigates the gender-unequal impacts of marriage and having children on labor market outcomes in South Korea, focusing on the associated penalties (termed marriage penalty and child penalty, respectively) and the work environment characteristics that may contribute to these effects. A difference-in-differences event study method finds that marriage and child penalties are substantial and enduring in employment and earnings. Moreover, international comparison with European countries and the US indicates that in Korea, these penalties mostly arise from the extensive margin (i.e., employment) rather than the intensive margin (i.e., hours worked or wage). This study further examines whether these penalties correlate with occupational working hours and time pressure. The results show that the marriage penalty is less severe for women in occupations with shorter working hours and less time pressure. Thus, considering Korea's long, inflexible working hours and underutilized family policies, these findings underscore the need for a work environment that actively encourages adjustable work schedules and family-friendly policies to advance women’s careers and promote healthy work-family balance.

Summary

Policy Study KOR A Study of Efficient Utilization of Aging Workers

South Korea is expected to face a deceleration in its economic growth, mainly due to a significant reduction in its labor force, resulting from an exceptionally low fertility rate and a rapidly aging population. In response, some have proposed bolstering the country’s labor market by encouraging the participation of older individuals to mitigate the labor shortage. The effectiveness of this strategy depends on the extent to which the labor provided by older workers can substitute for the diminishing younger workforce. Despite numerous studies on this subject, there is still no clear consensus on the degree of substitutability between the two age groups. Furthermore, the mechanism determining whether different age groups are substitutes or complements in the labor market has not been extensively explored.

This study investigates the contributions of older workers to production and their substitutability with younger workers by analyzing the tasks performed in their jobs. These tasks provide rich information on the nature of work across various occupations, classified into five categories in this study: analytical, social, service, routine, and manual. This study assesses the intensity with which these tasks in each occupation and calculates a task-age profile to observe how task composition shifts as workers age. The findings reveal that older workers are more likely to engage in occupations with a lower intensity of analytical and social tasks but a higher intensity of routine and manual tasks. Interestingly, the shift in task composition with age is less pronounced among female workers, particularly in social and service tasks.

The study also examines age-related task heterogeneity that emerges when workers switch jobs following a period of unemployment. An event study demonstrates that the impact of unemployment significantly varies with age. Workers who became unemployed before the age of 50 did not show marked changes in the intensity of analytical and social tasks in their subsequent jobs. In fact, early-career unemployment actually increased the intensity of these tasks. Conversely, individuals employed after 50 tended to move jobs with a substantially lower intensity of analytical and social tasks compared to their previous jobs. Such trends suggest that later-career unemployment increases the likelihood of obtaining a job with a significantly different task composition, often lower on the occupational ladder. The event study also reveals a gender disparity: post-50 unemployment did not reduce the intensity of social tasks among female workers.

This study reveals significant task segregation in the South Korean labor market, showing the substitutability between older and younger workers heavily depends on the task composition of various occupations. The key findings suggest that it may be challenging for older workers to replace younger ones in occupations requiring intensive analytical and social tasks. Additionally, the analysis indicates that age-related task segregation often results from significant shifts in task requirements when older workers transition to new jobs. Therefore, mitigating task segregation and enhancing the substitutability between different age groups necessitates strategies to prevent premature retirement and expand employment opportunities for older job seekers.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Changes in the employment structure and income gap before and after COVID-19 : Analysis using Quarterly Data of KLIPS

COVID-19 first appeared in Korea in January 2020, reshaping our daily lives over nearly three years. The pandemic exerted a substantial influence on the labor market, resulting in a decline of 200,000 to 400,000 jobs in March 2020 compared to the same month the previous year. By January 2021, when the pandemic peaked in Korea, job losses approximated 1 million. Nevertheless, from March 2021 onward, employment trajectories showed a rapid ascent, and by September 2022, indicators seemed to have returned to pre-COVID levels.

Against this backdrop, this report poses three research inquiries. First, has the employment structure of our labor market undergone any transformation before and after the COVID-19 disruption? Second, while the quantitative recovery of employment is observed, has its quality, i.e., wage (income), been adequately restored to its preceding state? The purpose of these two questions is to determine if the employment shock caused by the pandemic disproportionately affected certain worker cohorts. The third query endeavors to identify factors external to the pandemic that might have exerted influence on the labor market, specifically exploring potential reasons for the observed deviation in recent employment patterns from historical trends.

This study sourced datasets spanning the 18th (2015) to the 24th (2021) series of the Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (KLIPS). The annual data was restructured into a quarterly format, thereby facilitating an analysis of employment dynamics across pre- and post-COVID intervals. Quarterly employment figures were derived from individual employment records curated by KLIPS to examine labor state transitions and associated income fluctuations within the quarterly timeframe. This quarterly analytical paradigm offered an advantage in capturing more short-term job transitions than annual data might have.

Summary

Policy Study KOR A Study on Job Displacement of Middle-Aged Male Workers During Economic Crisis in Korea

This study explores long-term consequences of unexpected job displacement among middle-aged male workers during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis in Korea. Utilizing datasets from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) and Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA), the research examines this cohort's work trajectories, socioeconomic status, and health implications. The study further investigates the intergenerational impacts of job displacement, with a spotlight on education expenditure, education attainment, and labor market outcomes of the children of the affected workers.

The findings reveal that these workers could not regain their pre-crisis employment levels, and their job quality declined due to repeated cycles of unemployment and reemployment. This trend shortened their active years in the workforce, leading to decreased pension contributions and reduced income levels in their later years. Moreover, job displacement adversely influenced their mental well-being, with a marked increase in depression rates within this group. Lastly, children of displaced fathers are observed to spend less on education. They display lower enrollment rates in higher educational institutions and often lean towards majors with more direct employment prospects. Economically, these children's annual earnings are roughly 9.4% beneath those of their peers whose fathers remained insulated from job displacement during the crisis.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Women’s Career Interruptions and the Declining Fertility Rate in South Korea

In South Korea, more women are postponing or forgoing childbirth due to concerns about career interruption. Their conscious decision to refrain from motherhood is estimated to be responsible for about 40% of the decrease in the fertility rate. In the face of the world’s lowest fertility rate, Korea needs to overhaul its policies to better support work-life balance, enabling parents to maintain their careers while raising children.

- Traditional economic theory explains the decline in fertility rates as a result of the increase in women’s opportunity costs.

- Since the 2000s, a positive correlation between women’s labor force participation rates, income, and fertility rates has been commonly observed in high-income countries, which appears to be closely associated with the extent to which women (mothers) can balance work and family life.

- South Korea’s low fertility rate may have stemmed from the disproportionate burden of childcare on women, combined with the persistent difficulty in balancing work and family life, leading women to postpone or forgo childbirth.

- If the presence of children significantly affects women’s probability of career interruption, the number of women who forgo childbirth while maintaining their careers due to these concerns may increase.

- If young women choose to have children, their probability of career interruption increases by about 14%p, leading to a higher likelihood of experiencing a substantial level of economic loss throughout their lifetime.

- Since the mid-2010s, Korea’s total fertility rate has rapidly decreased, as the gap in career interruptions based on parenthood status has widened.

- Recently (2013~19), the gender employment gap has narrowed. Still, this converging trend has been limited to the young without children, ironically increasing the women’s opportunity costs for choosing to give birth. This increased child penalty is estimated to account for about 40% of the overall decline in the fertility rate.

- Policies aimed at preventing career interruptions for women with children are expected to contribute to raising the fertility rate by reducing the number of women who delay or forgo childbirth.

- Policies that mitigate career interruptions for women with children can increase labor supply and prevent the erosion of irrecoverable human capital, thereby not only helping to raise the fertility rate but also promoting macroeconomic growth.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market and Policy Implications

This report provides an overview of the recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and examines its potential to automate jobs in the Korean labor market. Through an analysis that merges expert assessments of AI capabilities with the skill profiles of occupations in Korea, it is found that, as of 2023, 38.8% of current jobs are at risk of having over 70% of their tasks automated. Predictions for 2030 suggest that nearly 90% of tasks across 90% of existing job types might be subject to automation, if the current task structure should remain as it is.

Nevertheless, the technical feasibility of automation does not directly translate to an imminent risk of automation. As of the end of 2021, only 2.7% of private firms with more than ten employees had adopted AI according to official statistics. When considering the differential AI adoption rates by firm size, it is estimated that about 10% of the workforce is exposed to AI.

In pursuit of a more nuanced understanding of the actual risk posed by automation, this research delves into the impact of increased AI exposure within local labor markets. The findings suggest that while AI's introduction does not meaningfully affect total employment, it tends to lower earnings, with women's average earnings disproportionately affected. More granular analyses indicate that an increase in AI exposure, driven by plausibly exogenous factors, has primarily resulted in diminished employment and earnings opportunities for younger workers at the nascent stages of their careers.

Drawing from these findings, this report proposes policy recommendations to navigate the challenges posed by AI in the labor market effectively.

Summary

KDI FOCUS OECD Average Annual Hours Worked: Comparative Analysis and Implications

The OECD statistics on annual hours worked per person are often cited as evidence for Korea’s long working hours, but this in fact tends to be the result of the nation’s high proportion of self-employed workers and low proportion of part-time workers. When this distinct employment composition is taken into account, the difference between Korea’s hours worked and those of other OECD countries turns out to be much less significant compared to previous estimates. However, Korea’s hours worked do remain relatively longer even after such an adjustment. Therefore, it is important to figure out and thereby address underlying institutional factors of unproductive long working hours. Furthermore, flexible and choice-based working arrangements should be promoted for improving labor market efficiency.

- Since the proportion of self-employed and parttime workers differs from country to country, inappropriate to make direct comparisons of the average hours worked per person across different countries without considering such factors.

- Korea’s annual hours worked per worker are rapidly declining, primarily due to improvements in productivity resulting from economic growth and institutional efforts to reform long working practices.

- Annual hours worked per person tend to increase when the proportion of self-employed individuals among total employment rises, and decrease when the proportion of part-time workers increases.

- Compared to other countries, Korea shows longer annual hours worked per person due to a higher proportion of self-employed and a lower proportion of part-time workers. Controlling for these differences in employment composition, the gap in annual hours worked between Korea and other OECD countries falls by approximately 31%.

- However, even when accounting for the impact of the proportion of selfemployed and part-time workers, Korea remains among the nations with extended hours worked.

- Approximately 33% of the reduction in Korea’s annual hours worked per worker during 2010-2021 is attributable to the decrease in the proportion of self-employed workers and the increase in the proportion of part-time workers.

- Comprehensive and concerted policy efforts are necessary to facilitate a more inclusive labor market that accommodates diverse workforce groups, endorsing flexible working hours options and choice-based working arrangements.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Assessing Old-Age Poverty with Income and Assets: Generational Insights and Policy Directions

Korea’s old-age poverty rate, based solely on income, ranks among the highest in the OECD. While the rate drops slightly when assets are considered, it remains persistently high. There are marked disparities in poverty rates across different elderly birth cohorts, with older groups facing higher rates. A greater share of the low-income, low-asset segment also marks the observed inequality. To effectively address poverty among the elderly, policy efforts should prioritize support for the oldest members of this vulnerable low-income, low-asset segment. Concurrently, financial assistance for seniors in the low-income, high-asset group should be scaled back. A practical move toward this direction would be revising the eligibility criteria for the Basic Pension to include asset-inclusive pensionable earnings.

- Korea’s old-age poverty rate was 43.4% in 2018, the highest among OECD countries (average 13.1%).

- The old-age poverty rate varies markedly across the five elderly generations, with those born in the 1940s or earlier having the highest rates.

- The recent decrease in the old-age poverty rate and the disparities seen across age cohorts can likely be attributed to the growing proportion of individuals born in the 1950s who tend to be less impoverished.

- Given the nascent state of public transfers in Korea, asset accumulation is the likely channel of retirement planning, meaning income alone does not provide a complete picture of old-age poverty.

- When incorporating both income and assets into the analysis, the old-age poverty rate determined by asset incomization is markedly lower than that derived from income alone but remains elevated.

- Korea’s old-age poverty rate, evaluated using both income and assets, still ranks among the highest in the world.

- When incorporating assets into the analysis, the share of the low-income, low-asset varies significantly across generations, particularly among those born in the 1940s and earlier.

- The difference in levels of old-age poverty across generations can be attributed to the intergenerational income disparity caused by rapid economic growth and the differing maturity levels of retirement security systems for each generation.

- To provide targeted assistance for the most vulnerable, the Basic Pension should be based on asset-adjusted pensionable earnings, reducing the support for seniors in the low-income, high-asset category.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Designing Social Protections for Platform Workers

In the expanding landscape of the platform economy, the rapid rise in the number of platform workers underscores a critical issue: the need for social protection for those not covered by conventional labor laws. Recognizing the transformative impact and significant societal value of the platform economy, it becomes essential to rethink the legal classification of platform workers, moving beyond the traditional "employee" versus "business owner" dichotomy. This paper argues that while platform workers might exhibit similar work patterns, the protection they receive should be proportionate to the labor monopsony power exerted by the platforms they associate with. A harmonized approach that aligns labor and competition policies is crucial to address these challenges.

- Today, platform labor is experiencing a swift expansion both in scope and magnitude.

- While the growth of platform workers presents numerous benefits, recent developments have spotlighted a few notable concerns.

- The discourse surrounding social protection for platform workers has been active, primarily revolving around the question of acknowledging their status as workers.

- The approach needs to be about reconciling the characteristics of the platform economy with genuinely effective protection for its workers.

- By focusing on the labor monopsony inherent to platforms, we can objectively assess the necessity of social protection for platform workers, incorporating discussions on both labor and fair trade policies.

- In this paper, ICT software developer platforms and delivery app platforms are investigated as representative examples of web-based freelance platforms and locally-based labor provision platforms, respectively.

- While the labor supply elasticity offers an empirical estimate of monopsony power, the platform economy necessitates a broader examination of additional factors.

- As for in-house contracts in the ICT developer platform, an empirical analysis shows that its labor monopsony power is on par with that of the typical labor market.

- In the delivery app market, it is imperative to examine the competitive dynamics among platforms from the standpoints of delivery app providers and consumers. Of particular interest is understanding the reasons and frequency of individuals using multiple apps at the same time (multihoming), along with the ease of switching between platforms.

- From the consumer perspective, the entry of newer players and heightened competition among delivery apps have increased multi-homing and reduced market dominance.

- Delivery app riders generally view themselves as wage workers. While they enjoy considerable flexibility in tasks and working hours, they are also subject to significant ex-post oversight through performance evaluations.

- To ensure the effective protection of platform workers while allowing platform-driven innovation, policies must be both flexible and unified under the goal of curbing platforms' monopsony power over labor demand and preventing potential abuses.

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