Policy Study Demographics and Inflation in Korea December 30, 2023
Series No. 2023-08
December 30, 2023
- Summary
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This study empirically analyzes Korean data focusing on the impact of the demographic change on the inflation. The analysis indicates that the ongoing aging of the population does not statistically significantly induce inflation in terms of the aggregate price index. However, an analysis of the sub-items of the price index shows that changes in the age composition of the population are associated with sector-specific inflation. Particularly in the service sector, the increase in the population of the young and the elderly appears to have an inflationary effect, while a relative increase in the working-age population seems to be deflationary. In conclusion, this study finds that the relationship between population structure and inflation varies by sector, with a more pronounced correlation in the service sector. This is an analytically significant finding that deserves policy attention. It suggests that policy decisions for price stability should carefully evaluate and distinctively respond to the potential impacts of demographic changes on a sector-by-sector basis.
- Contents
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Preface
Executive Summary
Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 Inflation and Demographic Change in Korea
Section 1 Inflation Trends
Section 2 The Relationship between Demographics and Inflation in Korea
Chapter 3 Estimating the Impact of Demography on Inflation
Section 1 Inflation Dynamics and Demographic Change
Section 2 Model Setup and Population Polynomials
Section 3 Empirical Analysis Results: The Impact of Demographic Shares
Section 4 Sector-Specific Analysis
Section 5 Conclusion
Chapter 4 Policy Implications
Section 1 Population Aging and Sector-Specific Inflation
Section 2 The Inflationary Path of Demographic Change
Section 3 Dilemmas in Macroeconomic Policy Responses
Chapter 5 Conclusion
References
Appendix
ABSTRACT
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