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Policy Study Demographics and Inflation in Korea December 30, 2023

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Series No. 2023-08

Policy Study KOR Demographics and Inflation in Korea #Inflation, Interest Rates, and Monetary Policy #General(Other) #Demographics
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.22740/kdi.ps.2023.08 P-ISBN979-11-5932-872-5 E-ISBN979-11-5932-877-0

December 30, 2023

  • 프로필
    Jaejoon Lee
Summary
This study empirically analyzes Korean data focusing on the impact of the demographic change on the inflation. The analysis indicates that the ongoing aging of the population does not statistically significantly induce inflation in terms of the aggregate price index. However, an analysis of the sub-items of the price index shows that changes in the age composition of the population are associated with sector-specific inflation. Particularly in the service sector, the increase in the population of the young and the elderly appears to have an inflationary effect, while a relative increase in the working-age population seems to be deflationary. In conclusion, this study finds that the relationship between population structure and inflation varies by sector, with a more pronounced correlation in the service sector. This is an analytically significant finding that deserves policy attention. It suggests that policy decisions for price stability should carefully evaluate and distinctively respond to the potential impacts of demographic changes on a sector-by-sector basis.
Contents
Preface
Executive Summary

Chapter 1 Introduction

Chapter 2 Inflation and Demographic Change in Korea
 Section 1 Inflation Trends
 Section 2 The Relationship between Demographics and Inflation in Korea

Chapter 3 Estimating the Impact of Demography on Inflation
 Section 1 Inflation Dynamics and Demographic Change
 Section 2 Model Setup and Population Polynomials
 Section 3 Empirical Analysis Results: The Impact of Demographic Shares
 Section 4 Sector-Specific Analysis
 Section 5 Conclusion

Chapter 4 Policy Implications
 Section 1 Population Aging and Sector-Specific Inflation
 Section 2 The Inflationary Path of Demographic Change
 Section 3 Dilemmas in Macroeconomic Policy Responses

Chapter 5 Conclusion

References
Appendix
ABSTRACT
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