This paper analyzes healthcare expenditure growth in Korea using National Health Insurance Claims data from 2009 to 2019. Healthcare expenditure growth is decomposed into three components at the disease level: service utilization growth, service price growth and demographic transition.

The decomposition shows that growth in prices is the primary driver of healthcare expenditure growth since 2013 at the aggregate level. The main driver has shifted from service utilization growth towards service prices growth. The contribution of demographic shift remains stable over the period, however the contribution pattern varies across age group, type of services and suppliers.

Decomposition of healthcare expenditure of elderly shows different pattern compared to aggregate level decomposition. Demographic shift is the main driver of healthcare expenditure growth among elderly. The contribution of service utilization decreased and suggests possible healthy aging.

Abstract

Preface
Summary (Korean)

Chapter 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. Analysis of Determinants of Healthcare Expenditure
　Section 1. Panel Analysis of Determinants of Healthcare Expenditure
　Section 2. Analysis of Changes in Healthcare Expenditure in Korea

Chapter 3. Contribution Analysis of Factors Driving the Growth of National Health Insurance Expenditure
　Section 1. Definition of Indicators and Data for Analysis
　Section 2. Analysis Results

Chapter 4. Summary of Results and Policy Implications
　Section 1. Summary of Results
　Section 2. Policy Implications

References
Appendix