Research Monograph Renewable Energy Deployment in Korea: Economic Drivers, Barriers, and Policy Implications December 31, 2025
Series No. 2025-10
December 31, 2025
- Summary
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Despite the rapid global decline in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar and wind power, Korea's renewable energy generation share remains markedly low. This study examines the economic drivers and impacts of renewable energy deployment in Korea through four complementary analyses: firm-level decomposition of industrial greenhouse gas emissions, cross-country panel estimation of deployment correlates, country-level learning-by-doing (LBD) estimation, and a public expenditure efficiency assessment using the Marginal Value of Public Funds (MVPF) framework.
The firm-level analysis finds that emission reductions in Korea have been driven primarily by energy efficiency improvements, while fuel switching and process-level reductions remain limited; technological lock-in among large firms suggests a heavier potential burden from carbon pricing. The cross-country analysis finds that LCOE is not significantly associated with deployment shares on average, but a negative correlation emerges among low-deployment countries; non-cost factors ― including grid quality, financial access, and revenue certainty ― are each significant on average. LBD estimates reveal that cumulative capacity and cost reductions co-move on average, but global technology spillovers account for much of this pattern; onshore wind, however, exhibits a statistically robust inverted-U-shaped learning path that persists after controlling for common trends, with learning pathways that vary across countries and are amplified by revenue certainty and technological proximity. Applying the MVPF framework to Korea's Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) scheme yields estimates of 1.33 for solar and 1.18 for wind, with learning effects accounting for 21-50% of total benefits. Taken together, the evidence points to a policy agenda extending beyond price signals: accelerating renewable deployment requires targeted interventions in grid infrastructure, financing conditions, and institutional design ― investments that the MVPF estimates confirm to be economically justified.
- Contents
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Abstract
Preface
Summary (Korean)
Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 Carbon Cost Exposure and Energy Transition of Domestic Firms
Section 1 Trends and Decomposition of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Section 2 Firm Size and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Chapter 3 Analysis of Determinants of Renewable Energy Deployment
Section 1 Determinants of Renewable Energy Deployment
Section 2 Data and Sample
Section 3 Analytical Model
Section 4 Empirical Results
Chapter 4 Learning Effects of Renewable Energy
Section 1 Concept and Amplifying Factors of Learning Effects
Section 2 Data and Sample
Section 3 Analytical Model
Section 4 Empirical Results
Chapter 5 Costs and Benefits of Renewable Energy Deployment Policies
Section 1 Evaluation Methodology
Section 2 Evaluation of Renewable Energy Policies using MVPF
Chapter 6 Conclusion
References
Appendix
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