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Research Monograph Green Transition Strategy and Implementation April 28, 2023

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Series No. 2023-02

Research Monograph KOR Green Transition Strategy and Implementation #General(Other) #General(Other) #General(Other) #Environment and Energy
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.22740/kdi.rm.2023.02 P-ISBN979-11-5932-795-7 E-ISBN979-11-5932-820-6

April 28, 2023

  • 프로필
    Yong Hyeon Yang
  • 프로필
    Junghyun Kwon
  • 프로필
    Hyunseok Kim
  • 프로필
    Yeochang Yoon
  • 프로필
    Karam Jo
  • KDI
    CHON, Sora
  • 프로필
    Joseph Han
  • KDI
    Wonhyuk Lim
  • KDI
    PARK, Wooram
  • KDI
    Hyungna Oh
Summary
It is imperative for the Republic of Korea to prioritize the development of elaborate green transition strategies and implementation plans. In light of this urgency, this study offers ten chapters addressing select issues on green transition, which provide policy recommendations drawn from identification of problems, assessment of current policies, and empirical analysis.

Chapter 2 (Dr. Yong Hyeon Yang) assesses the national greenhouse gas emission reduction plan the Korean government announced in Oct. 2021. It finds the sectoral strategies to be insufficient for the stated targets and suggests that an energy transition ambition has to be increased as either targets have to be decreased in other sectors or there could be a need for more extensive electrification. Chapter 3 (Prof. Wonhyuk Lim) offers insights on energy transition strategies and their implication for the electricity industry. Periodical simulations should be conducted for multiple scenarios, and the overall cost of transition, including the expenses for networks and standby facilities as well as the levelized cost of energy, should be minimized. Accordingly, transition and phase-out of fossil fuel plants should be systematically planned in stages.

Chapter 4 (Dr. Yeochang Yoon) points out the limitations of the Korean emission trading system (ETS) and presents potential solutions. The current restrictions on banking need to be relaxed to keep the ETS allowance prices from dropping, but such adjustments should be introduced gradually to prevent a sudden decline in supply. Chapter 5 (Prof. Hyungna Oh) raises a possibility of insufficient investment in decarbonization technologies due to first-mover disadvantages. It advocates introduction of carbon contracts for difference to incentivize R&D in green technologies, especially when carbon prices are low or uncertain. Chapter 6 (Dr. Karam Jo) presents the empirical result that patents in some digital transformation technologies can increase patents in climate technologies by an average of 17.3% and underscores the need to promote such digital transformation technologies.

Chapter 7 (Dr. Junghyun Kwon and Dr. Joseph Han) reveals that elevated outdoor temperatures decrease working hours in an inequitable manner and deteriorate workers’ health. These observations imply that climate change could magnify income inequality. As such, protective measures for outdoor workers against high temperatures and support for their job transitions are crucial. Chapter 8 (Dr. Hyunseok Kim) proposes selective subsidies for regions heavily impacted by climate change and green transition, and highlights the necessity of assessing those impacts objectively. Most importantly, local governments should formulate transition plans in line with central government guidelines.

Chapter 9 (Prof. WooRam Park) indicates that a large portion of greenhouse gas comes from establishments with more than 300 workers, and in such industries as petrochemical and steel. It also shows higher carbon productivity in industries with lower greenhouse gas emissions and establishments using less energy. Chapter 10 (Dr. Joseph Han) reveals the empirical result that firms who entered in the first stage of ETS had significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions, energy usage, annual turnover, and employment than those who did in the second stage. The performance of these firms was influenced by the design of the ETS, for example, on what basis the allowances were assigned free of charge or for a fee. Hence, policy design for green transition should pay particular attention to its effects on businesses and employment. Lastly, Chapter 11 (Dr. Sora Chon) observes that the global green transition might trigger both green and energy inflation. Analyzing the effect of inflation factors on the Korean economy finds that such impacts vary based on whether inflation arises from a demand or a supply shock. Consequently, the Korean government's responses should differentiate between inflation factors that are demand-side and supply-side.
Contents
Preface
Executive Summary

Chapter 1 Introduction (Yong Hyeon Yang)
References

Part 1 Strategy Formulation and System Design

Chapter 2 Evaluation of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plans and Future Directions (Yong Hyeon Yang)
 Section 1 Evaluation of the Proactivity of Reduction Targets
 Section 2 Selectable Reduction Paths and Evaluation
 Section 3 Sectoral Reduction Plans and Consistency Across Sectors
 Section 4 Conclusion
 References

Chapter 3 Challenges of the Power Industry for Low-Carbon Electrification (Wonhyuk Lim)
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Carbon Neutrality and Low-Carbon Electrification
 Section 3 Korea's Carbon Neutrality Plan: Focus on the Transition Sector
 Section 4 Future Challenges for the Power Industry in Low-Carbon Electrification
 References

Chapter 4 Measures to Improve the Operation of the Emissions Trading System (ETS) for Low-Carbon Transition (Yeochang Yoon)
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Current Status of Carbon Pricing Systems Domestically and Internationally
 Section 3 Analysis of Static Models
 Section 4 Analysis of Dynamic Models
 Section 5 Conclusion and Policy Implications
 References

Chapter 5 Latecomer Advantage and Early Commercialization of Decarbonized Process Technologies: The Necessity of Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD) (Hyungna Oh)
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Emissions Status of Energy-Intensive Materials Industry and Barriers to Carbon Neutrality: Focus on the Steel Industry
 Section 3 Review of Literature on Decarbonization in Industrial Sectors
 Section 4 Investment Decision Models for Decarbonized Processes and Products
 Section 5 Analysis of Investment Incentives for Early Commercialization of Decarbonized Products
 Section 6 Conclusion
 References

Chapter 6 Analysis of the Interrelationship Between Climate and Digital Technologies and Its Implications (Karam Jo)
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Review of Previous Studie
 Section 3 Empirical Analysis
 Section 4 Policy Implications
 Section 5 Conclusion
 References
 Appendix

Part 2 The Impact and Implications of Climate Change and Transition

Chapter 7 Climate Change and Economic Vulnerability: The Effects of Abnormal High Temperatures on Employment and Worker’s Health (Junghyun Kwon, Joseph Han)
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Temperature and Economic Activity
 Section 3 Temperature and Worker’s Health
 Section 4 Summary and Policy Implications
 References

Chapter 8 The Role of Central and Local Governments in a Just Transition and the Direction of Response (Hyunseok Kim)
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Current Status of Just Transition Initiatives
 Section 3 International Policy Directions for Decarbonization and Just Transition
 Section 4 Regional Vulnerability Analysis in Carbon Neutrality Efforts
 Section 5 Conclusion and Policy Implications
 References

Section 9 The Relationship Between Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Industrial Characteristics: Focus on the Manufacturing Sector (Wooram Park)
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Data
 Section 3 Empirical Analysis Results
 Section 4 Conclusion
 References
 Appendix

Chapter 10 Climate Change Responses and Job Losses: The Impact of the Emissions Trading System on Corporate Financial Performance and Employment (Joseph Han)
 Section 1 Introduction: Concerns About Climate Change Responses and Job Losses
 Section 2 The Emissions Trading System (ETS) and Previous Evaluations
 Section 3 Data
 Section 4 Empirical Models
 Section 5 Estimated Results
 Section 6 Conclusion and Policy Implications
 References

Chapter 11 Economic Impacts of the Global Low-Carbon Transition on Korea: Focus on Green Energy Inflation (Sora Chon)
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Energy and Metal Raw Materials Markets
 Section 3 Major Previous Studies
 Section 4 Model Setup and Analysis Results
 Section 5 Conclusion
 References
 Appendix

ABSTRACT
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