KDI - Korea Development Institute - RESEARCH - Research Areas

Summary

KDI FOCUS The Role of Capital Structure in Real Estate Project Financing: Risk, Cost, and Policy Implications

By examining project-level data on real estate project financing (PF), I find that higher equity ratios are associated with lower overall risk and reduced project costs. This finding supports policy measures aimed at strengthening capital structures without unduly constraining PF activity. If regulatory lending limits are to be introduced, they should target only low-equity PF projects. Moreover, preferred shares should be recognized as regulatory-eligible equity capital, and the deferral of capital gains tax should be made permanent to encourage in-kind land contributions. It is equally important to address regulatory arbitrage involving Project Finance Vehicles (PFVs), which are often exploited to pursue large-scale developments with minimal capital.

- The government has announced measures to expand PF equity capital, but without disclosing project-level data, there is no empirical basis to assess whether this expansion sufficiently reduces risk.

- Empirical analysis finds that expanding PF equity capital lowers risks across presale, default, postdefault recovery failure, and post-completion refinancing failure.

- PF capital expansion reduces construction, f inancing, and other costs, which in turn lowers total project costs.

- Increases in PF equity ratios diminish contractors’ guarantee risk, reduce construction costs, and thereby lessen completion risk.

- The current plan properly combines capital requirements with incentives, but specificity and effectiveness should be improved.

- PF lending caps should apply only to loans on low-equity projects, not to all PF loans.

- Policy incentives should extend to preferred shares as eligible PF equity capital to attract more equity investors.

- The capital gains tax deferral for in-kind land contributions should be permanent.

- PFVs have enabled undercapitalization in large projects, and prudential regulation and supervision on par with project REITs should be introduced in stages for PFVs to close regulatory arbitrage and strengthen the capital base.

Summary

Policy Study KOR Capital Flows and Challenges in the Digital Age: Focusing on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)

As the digitalization of finance accelerates, discussions on the adoption of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are gaining momentum, particularly among G20 nations. This development calls for examining the potential impacts of CBDC implementation on both domestic and international financial markets and capital flow, alongside exploring appropriate response strategies. Upon reviewing the status and background of CBDC adoption among G20 countries, setting up a unified CBDC platform for this group in the short term is highly unfeasible. Instead, some emerging economies are expected to introduce retail CBDCs to enhance payment infrastructure or conduct experiments linking wholesale CBDCs for cross-border payments. Should CBDCs be adopted globally, the speed and scale of international capital movements could increase, potentially amplifying the volatility of capital flows and currency values. In order to ensure the effectiveness of capital flow management policies already in place, it is crucial to foster close cooperation between major central banks on CBDC integration. Moreover, efforts should be made to maximize the benefits of the new payment systems introduced by CBDCs. These efforts include revising financial regulations and upgrading infrastructure by implementing open foreign exchange regulations, maintaining balanced oversight of fintech firms, and enhancing the efficiency of existing payment and settlement infrastructures.

Summary

Policy Study KOR CBDC-based New Banking System, Bank Runs, and Efficient Allocation

Digital financial innovation drives the development of the financial industry, offering new benefits to financial consumers. However, as demonstrated by the 2023 bank run involving Silicon Valley Bank, it also heightens the risk of digital bank runs. In exploring how to prevent bank runs while ensuring the efficiency of financial intermediation, this study examines a new banking system proposed in Europe, the CBDC next-level model: A central bank issues retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to monopolize demand deposit-taking and supply these funds as pass-through funding to commercial banks. In turn, banks provide loans to private borrowers using these funds. This system removes barriers to entry in the loan market to allow for free competition among commercial banks, fintechs, and Big Tech companies, thereby introducing perfect competition. Rigorous theoretical analysis in this study shows that this novel system could eliminate bank runs while achieving socially optimal levels of financial intermediation. Nonetheless, this model also presents some limitations, such as the centralization of personal information by the central bank and the potential political influence over lending decisions.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Protecting Customer Funds for Emerging Financial Products

Emerging financial products driven by innovation, such as virtual assets and simplified payment services, introduce both new conveniences and in-transaction risks to customer funds. Despite regulations on segregating customer funds already in place, full compliance by businesses with these rules is unlikely, especially with insolvency on their horizon. This paper proposes a new protection framework that bolsters the safety of new financial products and reduces funding pressures for the compensation scheme.

- New financial products emerging through innovation offer novel benefits but may also expose customers to risks in managing their funds.

- A protection system for emerging financial products can lay a strong foundation, serving as a key safety net to support reliable financial innovation.

- Customer funds for new financial products include prepaid balances, virtual asset deposits,

- P2P lending deposits, and funeral service prepayments.

- The current volume of customer funds associated with new financial products is substantial, at about 18 trillion won, and is expected to grow further, driven by advancements in digital finance and population aging.

- There have been numerous cases where businesses misappropriated customer funds for new financial products and later went bankrupt.

- Although fund segregation regulations for customer funds are in place, firms on the verge of bankruptcy are highly likely to violate them, and several other limitations persist.

- While fund segregation regulations serve a preventive function, the best of such precautions cannot eliminate all incidents, necessitating a post-incident protection system.

- In the direct protection scheme, firms pay insurance premiums in advance, and KDIC protects customers in the event of business insolvency.

- However, the direct scheme applies uniform insurance rates regardless of fund segregation in contrast to the fundamental insurance principle of premiums proportional to risk.

- In the indirect framework, firms do not pay insurance premiums, and KDIC safeguards only the funds segregated in banks in the event of bank failure.

- The indirect approach only protects segregated funds, leaving customers unprotected from violations of segregation rules, resulting in reduced protection effectiveness.

- The proposed hybrid scheme indirectly protects customer funds segregated in banks while directly safeguarding all other customer funds.

- This hybrid protection system ensures high effectiveness by safeguarding all customer funds and keeps

- insurance premium burdens low for firms and customers, as firms are incentivized to deposit most customer funds in banks.

- The hybrid protection system addresses risk transfer, in which a bank’s failure can trigger a firm’s insolvency.

- Early detection of firms facing liquidity risks is enabled by the hybrid proposal.

- KDIC’s burden under the hybrid option is not expected to be substantial.

- While the indirect protection system is easy to implement, the hybrid option requires substantial changes to the existing framework, making immediate implementation challenging.

- Recently, major developed countries have expanded the coverage of deposit insurance institutions beyond traditional deposits to include a wide range of financial and quasifinancial services, aiming to responsibly foster financial innovation.

- This study builds on such global trends to propose protection measures for customer funds in new financial products.

- The proposed protection system, with its inclusive nature, can serve as a comprehensive framework to protect and foster future innovation by capturing new financial products within its regulatory scope.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Foreign Exchange Policy in Response to Changes in Macroeconomy and Financial Markets

This study analyzes the relationship between cross-border capital flows and the foreign exchange market in Korea. It aims to propose revisions to the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act to facilitate international transactions and maintain external financial stability in light of changing macroeconomic and financial market environments.

The foreign exchange system is shaped by historical contexts, typically introduced to minimize the negative impact of currency fluctuations during events such as economic recessions or wars. However, as economies develop and financial markets grow, there is an increasing demand for the relaxation of regulatory measures on foreign exchange transactions.

As an open economy highly dependent on external trade, Korea encounters considerable risks to its economic stability from rapid fluctuations in exchange rates. Therefore, understanding the relationship among cross-border capital flows, interest rates, and exchange rates is crucial in crafting an effective foreign exchange system. Despite the projected increase in fiscal spending to address the aging population and enhance the quality of life, Korea's overall savings are expected to grow for the time being. With the domestic potential growth rate declining, it seems that the demand for private external financial investments will persist, indicating an expected increase in cross-border capital movements. The growth in private external financial investments presents an opportunity to ease regulations in the foreign exchange market, as the private sector can serve as an automatic stabilizer against exchange rate volatility by actively participating in the foreign exchange market and restoring normal rates.

Chapter 2 examines the impact of increasing domestic and international capital flows on Korea's financial markets. Analyzing the effects of foreign capital inflows using the Flows Implied by Rebalancing (FIR) index (Pandolfi & Williams, 2019), this chapter indicates that global passive fund inflows are associated with significant increases in bond prices (lower interest rates) and a strengthening of the Korean won (weaker exchange rate). These effects are more pronounced for non-reserve currency emerging market countries like Korea. Furthermore, the study investigates the impact of domestic funds' overseas investments on the foreign exchange market. It uses a synthetic control method to assess the effects of the 2017 policy that recognizes asset duration irrespective of insurance companies’ hedging practices. The findings show that an increase in domestic securities investments abroad leads to a decrease in the real effective exchange rate, resulting in a depreciation of the Korean won. However, there is no evidence that excessive demand in the foreign exchange market rises as swap rates increase, suggesting Korea’s foreign exchange market has gained stability compared to the past. An examination of the correlation between the won-dollar exchange rate volatility and the amount of net foreign assets reveals that more recently, as net foreign assets increase and the ratio of won-denominated liabilities rises, the amplitude of the net foreign asset increase due to non-trading factors tends to rise when the won depreciates, indicating the operation of an automatic stabilizer.

Chapter 3 puts forth the direction and key policy recommendations for the revision of the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act. The focus is on enhancing the efficiency of foreign exchange transactions while pursuing external stability. It suggests recognizing the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act more as a trading law than a business law, aiming to reduce overlaps with individual financial laws arising from its business law characteristics.

More specifically, Chapter 3 explores the history of Korea’s foreign exchange management policies and analyzes their characteristics and problems. Initially designed to curb the outflow of foreign exchange, these policies have since transformed to liberalize foreign exchange transactions across both current and capital accounts. However, the foreign exchange authority has maintained a conservative stance, prioritizing external soundness. Notably, the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act is recognized as a business law, maintaining a bank-centric approach while regulating the foreign exchange operations of non-banking financial institutions. Furthermore, the Act adopts a listing and delegation legislative approach. As a result, the current law is not only vulnerable to changes in the external environment but also faces issues of low legal systematicity, leading to high compliance costs.

Currently, most developed nations operate without legal restrictions on foreign exchange transactions. Countries that initially introduced regulations as a response to economic crises or wars have either eliminated or considerably eased these regulations to improve national competitiveness and foster the growth of their financial industry. Japan, whose foreign exchange system has historically resembled Korea’s, opened up foreign exchange operations to non-banking financial institutions and even non-financial companies as part of its financial big bang in 1998. However, Japan has retained a regulatory role in terms of information collection and monitoring for foreign exchange transactions. It continues to inspect and supervise foreign exchange operations of individual financial institutions under the applicable financial industry laws or laws governing financial product transactions.

This study proposes revisions to Korea’s Foreign Exchange Transaction Act based on international case studies. First, the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act, presently skewed towards business law characteristics, should shift its focus to underscore its role as a trading law rather than a business law. To invigorate foreign exchange transactions, the Korean government should move away from classifying foreign exchange operations as regulatory subjects and instead strengthen the monitoring and reporting systems for transactions. It is advisable to delegate regulation of foreign exchange operations to financial authorities under individual financial industry laws, with the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act stepping in only where foreign exchange operations are not covered under the relevant financial industry laws.

Second, this study recommends transitioning the regulatory approach for foreign exchange transactions under the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act from institutional to functional regulation. Functional regulation involves categorizing operations by their function and applying consistent regulations to identical activities, laying the groundwork for adapting to future changes, such as the digital transformation of finances.

Third, in response to the relaxation of foreign exchange regulations, the study suggests reinforcing liquidity and soundness for non-bank financial institutions. This compensatory measure addresses concerns associated with the shift toward functional regulation, which might essentially eliminate bank-centric practices, posing potential risks to financial stability due to the risk-taking practices of non-banking financial institutions. Specific measures include applying foreign exchange liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) requirements for financial investment firms, enhancing the effectiveness of Net Operation Capital Ratio (NCR) regulations, strengthening the responsibilities of boards and CEOs as licensing conditions for foreign exchange operations, and ensuring continuous supervision and inspections post-authorization. This approach mitigates concerns about functional regulations compromising external soundness by adopting a ‘same taskssame riskssame regulations’ rule at the financial regulatory and supervisory level to respond to systemic risks.

Finally, the study proposes imposing prompt corrective action measures on financial institutions handling foreign exchange transactions to enhance the effectiveness of safeguards before emergencies arise. Corresponding to the extent of regulation relaxation on foreign exchange operations, the Korean government strengthens the liquidity and soundness of financial institutions engaged in foreign exchange operations by enforcing prompt corrective action when various regulatory ratios are exceeded. Such measures not only minimize the broader systemic impact in case of early-stage insolvency but also incentivize companies to uphold sound management practices.

While Korea's foreign exchange system has evolved to reflect changes over time, the pace of these changes has been notably slow. While Korea actively engages with the international community, its efforts to liberalize foreign exchange transactions are constrained as a non-key currency nation. Nevertheless, the need for reform in the current conservative foreign exchange system persists for the sake of economic and capital market development.

Despite Korea’s orientation toward an open economy, its view on openness has traditionally centered around trade. From the early stages of economic development, exports have served as the primary engine of Korea’s economic growth, leading to minimal regulations on current account transactions. Consequently, foreign exchange transactions related to current account activities have been freely permitted. On the contrary, foreign exchange transactions for capital account activities have faced stringent regulations. While strict control over foreign exchange transactions might initially boost financial stability, it could also lower overall economic efficiency and potentially decelerate economic growth. Furthermore, ensuring financial stability requires collaborative efforts and coordinated actions among monetary, fiscal, financial, and financial supervisory authorities to enhance the stability of the financial system.

In conclusion, the study advocates for a significant easing of the regulations on foreign exchange transactions in Korea, recommending adjustments to match the current economic conditions and national competitiveness strategy. Korea’s financial institutions are positioned to lead the development of the financial system, especially as global portfolio diversification emerges as an economically efficient choice. This shift is happening against a backdrop of declining potential growth rates and rising demand for both domestic capital investments abroad and foreign capital investments within Korea. Therefore, it is imperative for the Korean government to comprehensively reassess restrictive regulations that hinder the global expansion of financial institutions, with the restrictions imposed by the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act as a prime example of such regulation in need of thorough reevaluation.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Housing Market Regulations and Housing Supply: Focusing on LTV, DSR, Property Tax, and the Improvement of Pre-Sale Housing

The Korean government often implements financial regulations, such as the Loan-to-Value (LTV) and Debt-Service-Ratio (DSR), ratios, to stabilize the housing market. This study investigates the effectiveness of these policies in the housing market and, if effective, determines whether they enhance the utility for housing consumers.

Additionally, the government employs housing supply policies, which greatly impact the housing market. Housing provision is a lengthy and capital-intensive process. Korea supplies most of the new housing through a system known as the pre-sale policy. In fact, this system has consistently faced the challenge of overheating subscriptions for over 40 years. In light of the current housing market dynamics, Chapter 3 explores possible improvements to the existing housing supply policy.

As for the effect of financial regulation, the policy that lowers the upper limit of the LTV ratio from 70% to 40% reduces household loans by more than 31% while increasing the relative price of housing by 0.005%. If the upper limit on LTV ratios is lowered, households experience a low productivity shock, making it difficult to maintain consumption levels by increasing mortgage lending when incomes fall. As a result, they are motivated to increase savings. When the capital stock in the model economy increases due to the increase in household savings, the real interest rate falls. Wealthy households with relatively large amounts of assets reduce the share of financial assets in their asset portfolios and increase the share of housing because the real interest rate, which is the rate of return on investment in financial assets, has fallen.

The analysis in this study reveals that policies tightening household lending regulations do not effectively curtail housing prices in the long run. If the goal is long-term price stabilization, the study suggests that increasing the supply of new housing is more effective than suppressing housing demand through stricter lending regulations.

Lastly, the study proposes a new policy model for improving housing supply, especially for the younger demographic. This model seeks to address both the housing service and investment needs of younger people. Regarding public offerings and transactions of fractional ownership, housing demand is categorized into the demand for residential services and the demand for investment in housing assets. In the current pre-sale subscription method, the share of the house is divided, and public offering subscriptions are received. This method distributes shares to each subscriber in proportion to the competition rate for subscriptions. In this scenario, new housing is provided to young adults as rental properties in line with the existing subscription method to meet the need for residential demand.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Financial Innovation and Reform in the Era of Digital Transformation

Since the financial sector restructuring after the 1997 crisis and the international financial reform after the 2008 global financial crisis completed with a well stabilized system, the main policy attention has shifted towards financial innovation. In general, financial innovation refers to a series of deregulation or redesigning to enhance the convenience of financial services, strengthening the competitiveness of the financial industry. In contrast, financial innovation in the era of digital transformation is characterized by more specific and practical attempts to drive profound changes in financial services than the general financial innovation. With the convergence of ICT and finance, transaction costs are drastically reduced, and the processes constituting financial services are subdivided into detailed tasks which are combined and synthesized to new services, Such a new type of services are sometimes not subject to or even contradicting to the existing financial regulatory system.

The so called unbundling and rebundling of financial services in the process of financial innovation have brought about a large legal gray zone in financial activities, That is, newly attempted activities are not clearly judged as lawful because of its absence of the stipulated financial codes so as to be often unduly checked. Also, financial innovation where platform and data-based technology companies enter the financial markets makes the boundaries of the financial industry blurred (Big Blur) and shifts customer contact points with non-financial firms, weakening an intermediary function of traditional financial ones. Ultimately, innovation to converge ICT and finance requires changes in the financial markets, industry, and system itself so that financial authorities confronts with a situation in which they must decide switching to a new system. In this sense financial innovation in the era of digital transformation is not just deregulation in the existing sphere, but means a reform and redesign of regulations at the micro and macro level.

When digital finance becomes commonplace, the financial regulatory system will also face serious challenges. For example, virtual assets are not underpinned with a clear legal foundation but are traded like securities and geared with leverage, mimicking conventional banking and brokerage in the name of innovation. The ICT companies, which are ambiguous to be classified as financial firms under the current system, function as service providers in the financial markets, or even pursue a decentralized finance platform where financial service intermediary firms do not necessarily exist. Thus, it is not so early that policymakers set the agenda for financial innovation which is fulfilling and harmonizing with policy objectives such as consumer welfare and protection, financial industry competitiveness as well as systemic stability.

This study examines the development of financial innovations related to recent digital transformation and resulting emergence of new tasks and services, and proposes the direction of financial policies focusing on regulatory and supervisory challenges and reforms. It proposes detailed policy suggestions on how to regulate electronic payment industry and security token markets. It then deals with regulatory and supervisory issues on systemic stability and consumer protection in the prevalence of digital platform. It also argues the divergence of production and sales of financial services in the digital transformation and consequently long-time controversial debates over banking and commerce separation. Finally, it discusses a legal framework and financial policy approaches consistent with regulatory paradigm shift in the digital transformation.

Summary

KDI FOCUS Galapagos Syndrome in South Korea’s Real Estate PF, and the Need for Fundamental Structural Reform

Over the past several decades, real estate project financing (PF) has repeatedly triggered economic disturbances in Korea, with no fundamental remedies in sight until now. Project sponsors are at the heart of this issue, investing minimal equity while heavily relying on guarantees from third parties, such as construction firms, to push forward development projects entirely on debt. This financing structure is unheard of in major advanced countries. Korea needs to reform its unique PF structure by augmenting capital and reducing dependence on guarantees.

- Over several decades, real estate project financing (PF) has repeatedly destabilized the Korean economy, but fundamental improvements have not been made.

- The root cause of PF problems lies in the unique financing practice of relying almost entirely on debt, where developers invest very little equity and depend heavily on third-party guarantees.

- In Korea, the equity ratio of developers is around 3%, while in major advanced countries, it exceeds 30%.

- In major countries, land is secured with equity capital, and only construction costs are financed through loans. This approach prevents the issue of refinancing bridge loans into main PF loans, which is typical in Korea.

- In major countries, it is rare for third parties, rather than developers, to guarantee PF loans, unlike in Korea.

- The low-equity and highguarantee structure leads to more developers becoming smaller in scale and underfunded.

- The low-equity and highguarantee structure leads to poorer assessments of project feasibility, no-questions-asked investments, and increased macroeconomic volatility.

- The low-equity and highguarantee structure shifts all risks to the national economy, not developers.

- Since advanced countries base loan issuance on project feasibility and financial structure per PF principles, capital augmentation is a prerequisite for developers to obtain loans.

- However, when Korea introduced PF, the market consisted of small developers and large construction firms. This disparity led to a low-equity, high-guarantee structure, which was reinforced by the pre-sale system.

- The prudent direction would be to raise the equity ratio to the level of advanced economies and abolish third-party guarantees. To that end, Korea should introduce regulations on capital augmentation.

- While regulations to increase capital may constrain the quantity of housing supply, they are expected to improve its stability.

- Even in environments unfavorable for scaling up, some developers have started small and grown into conglomerates, while others are affiliates of large corporations.

- The pool of potential equity investors is not limited.

- Because REITs socialize development profits and are already subject to equity ratio regulations, it is desirable to revitalize their equity investments or foster their direct participation as project sponsors.

- During the transition, it is necessary to implement support policies that encourage capital increases.

- The acute lack of data on real estate PF makes it difficult to even stay current, which in turn only allows temporary measures during crises and hinders regular monitoring or early crisis detection.

- A database system should be set up to collect official statistics on financial and business information by project and company.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Digital Payment Innovation and Financial Consumer Protection

○ Even with weak legislative support, the digital economy is gaining momentum, propelled by the recent progress in contactless financial services and digital finance’s growing convergence with other sectors.
- As the primary legal framework for digital finance, the Electronic Financial Transactions Act (EFTA) had an amendment proposal in November 2020, but the bill is still pending at the National Assembly.
- Despite its vital importance in the Korean economy as a legal foundation for financial innovation, the EFTA has remained largely intact since its enactment in 2006 and has not been sufficient institutional support for critical technological changes like the rise of fintech and big tech.

○ Key point of the amendment is opening up payment services to non-banking financial institutions, such as tech firms (big tech) and credit card firms.
- Payment services are an essential amenity in our everyday life, encompassing payment for goods and services, cash deposit and withdrawal, salary transfer, domestic and foreign remittance, and utility bill payment.
- The amendment bill introduces a license of Comprehensive Payment Service Provider (CPSP), which is allowed to provide all payment services by directly offering a checking account like banks.
- Once the bill passes, some big tech firms as well as conventional nonbank financial institutions like credit card issuers are expected to get the license of CPSP.

○ The significance of payment services lies in that this sector is the basis for nonbank entities to expand into other areas, such as banking, insurance, and financial investment in the mid-to-long term.
- Because every economic activity involves the act of paying, CPSPs can accumulate vast user data.
- Also, these operators can bring in a massive amount of funds that customers deposit for payment transfers. Such funds can be used to launch new customized investment products or expand their business to other financial markets.

○ In the longer term, opening up digital payment services may thrust the financial industry to the next level by stimulating competition from within.
- A single app or metaverse platform is all it takes for users to carry out the whole array of financial services and e-commerce, not to mention payment transfers. Also foreseeable are crumbling barriers between different subsectors within the broad financial sector and spurring competition across the entire industry.

○ Some are rather pessimistic about the open-up because they perceive it as flinging open the door of banking; however, this study does not regard it as harming financial stability.
- The required regulatory level should be on par with banking regulations when deeming CPSPs as banks, but as nonbank payment service providers the degree of restrictiveness and protection would decrease.
- This study views the core function of banks as financial intermediation, which transfers customer deposits into illiquid loans. Since payment service operators cannot provide loans, it is reasonable to regard them as nonbank payment institutions (refer to Chapter 4).

○ On the other hand, financial consumer protection remains crucial agenda.
- Since most payment service users place their funds in demand deposit accounts, protecting these funds and guaranteeing service users’ rights are critical.
- The amendment bill contains some protective measures, but in the UK, where a similar scheme has been in operation, several payment service providers went bankrupt without returning customer funds.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR A Study on Insurance Resolution

This study theoretically and empirically analyzes key issues to be considered in improving the resolution system for insolvent insurance companies and offers policy implications. The coming adoption of the new International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 17 as well as enforcement of the new capital regulation named Korean-Insurance Capital Stand (K-ICS) will likely expose the latent risk factors in domestic insurance firms and harm their financial soundness. Although a sudden, large rise in bankruptcy filings is improbable, there should be a sound institutional framework that could effectively handle the insolvency resolution in case of a default or bankruptcy of insurance firms considering the importance of the insurance industry in the financial system.

The existing approach for insolvency resolution heavily relies on government support. When an insurance company collapsed in the past, Korea usually responded with the "total portfolio transfer" (or run-off) method. In other words, a reinsurer assumed and accepted the insolvent insurer's contracts without modifications, and in the process, the government provided support like financial bailouts for the losses incurred to the reinsurer. The drawback of this government-dependent process is that it may lead to moral hazards among insurance policyholders and carriers and a fiscal burden to the government. That way, insurance consumers are not sufficiently motivated to care for the financial soundness of their insurers, and thus, the insurers have little incentive to improve their financial health. As a result, the government's fiscal burden increases as the probability and severity of insolvency grow.

The empirical analysis in this study also shows that insurance companies worldwide are highly reliant on their government. Per the analysis, should their countries' sovereign credit rating drop, so will the financial soundness of these insurers due to the accompanying reduction in the government's tacit protection for the insurance carriers. The insurance industry exhibits greater dependence on government in countries like Korea in particular, whose fiscal soundness is projected to deteriorate henceforth, or that do not issue a reserve currency, or whose insurance industry is large relative to the size of the national economy or public finance. The lesson learned is that Korea needs to improve its insolvency resolution system with stronger vigor.

Therefore, this study suggests the adoption of a new insolvency resolution regime in which policyholders are obliged to share some losses in case an insurance company collapses. As insurers' financial condition will become an important factor for consumers to consider before signing an insurance policy, the new regime can induce insurers to race for better financial health.

However, the loss-sharing regime may trigger a phenomenon called "insurance run," in which policyholders terminate their insurance contracts en masse. When a considerable number of policyholders end their contracts and exit the contractual relations altogether, it may negatively affect the business normalization of the insolvent carrier or the financial fitness of the firm acquiring the bankrupt company. The situation may exacerbate when the exit is more prevalent among relatively low-risk policyholders.

This study recommends the following policy responses in an overview of the theoretical and empirical analysis findings. First, caution should be taken not to seriously damage the continuity of original insurance contracts due to the loss-sharing requirement. In essence, insurance contracts are long-term contracts. Insurance premiums are paid at present to prepare for future insurable accidents. Especially for disease risk later in life, people purchase an insurance policy from a young age. The theoretical analysis revealed that it is desirable to set insurance premiums relative to expected risks, higher for younger and lower for older persons, for maximum social well-being. Thus, this premium structure should not be extensively altered under the loss-sharing regime. In this context, loss-sharing measures geared towards contract termination with less-profitable older policyholders in case an insurance firm goes out of business deserve reconsideration. That is to say, rather than terminating original insurance contracts with insolvent insurers, it would be advisable to keep them with minor modifications such as increasing premiums or reducing indemnity payment amounts in order to retain the contract continuity and share the losses.

Second, the loss-sharing ratio should be set at an appropriate level. The theoretical analysis shows that a higher ratio leads to contrary results: insurance firms can bring in more premium income (or pay less insurance money) from consumers retaining original contracts, but some policyholders bring them to an end. Such a trade-off should be taken into account when setting a proper ratio.

Third, a maximum of 10% requirement for loss sharing seems not to cause serious alarm for an insurance run. According to the survey analysis, it is highly probable that many insurance consumers regard the 10% requirement as lower than anticipated. Accordingly, only a few have expressed the intent to terminate their insurance contracts if so required.

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