본고는 코로나19 이후 악화된 중장기 재정여건을 개선하기 위한 조세 및 재정 정책을 검토하고 있다. 먼저 제2장에서는 2060년까지 현행의 총수입 및 총지출 관련 법과 제도가 지속적으로 유지된다는 전제하에서 2060년까지의 기준선 재정전망 결과를 소개하고, 정부의 2060년 국가채무비율 관리목표 달성에 필요한 네 가지 정책수단의 국가채무비율 개선효과를 평가하여 제시하고 있다. 제3장에서는 R&D의 GDP 대비 비율은 세계 최고수준이나 총요소생산성 개선수준은 OECD 국가들 중 하위권이라는 점과, 2002년 이후 연구개발을 제외한 기타지식재산생산물 투자가 침체된 점을 고려하여 연구개발 이외의 무형자산투자가 TFP 개선에 미치는 긍정적 효과를 검토했다. 기타 무형자산투자 확대는 경제성장을 견인하고 자연적 세수 증대에 기여할 것으로 기대된다. 제4장에서는 다양한 재정준칙 유형의 장단점을 실증적으로 분석하고, 우리나라의 정책환경을 고려하여 지출증가율과 GDP 대비 총지출 비중을 관리하는 지출준칙이 유효한 재정준칙의 대안이며, 합리적 가정하에 도출된 수지준칙이 함께 설정되는 것이 급증하는 국가채무의 증가속도를 관리하는 데 바람직한 정책대안으로 제시됐다.

The purpose of the study is to put forth tax and fiscal policies necessary to make worsened fiscal conditions after COVID-19 more constructive and sustainable. We first present the long-term fiscal baseline projections until 2060 and suggest four policy measures that could enhance the future fiscal space of Korea. Then, we analyze the possible positive impact of intangible investment other than R&D on improvements in total factor productivity (TFP), which could result in a natural increase in government revenues through economic growth. Finally, we also empirically evaluate the pros and cons of several types of fiscal rules and suggest rules for spending that could be one plausible alternative considering the current policy environment in Korea. The main findings and policy implications are summarized as follows.

In chapter 2, we present policy measures needed to achieve the long-term fiscal policy goal announced by the Korean government in September 2020, the government debt-to-GDP ratio of 81.1% in 2060. Before delving into specific measures to enhance fiscal space, we look at the baseline debt-to-GDP ratio for 2060, projected at 144.8%. Among three risk factors considered in this study, the failure of discretionary expenditure control was most detrimental to future fiscal conditions. If the discretionary expenditure ratio to GDP is kept at 14.7% until 2060, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to add 86.1%p compared to the 2060 baseline.

Even if these risk factors are not realized and remain as the assumption of the baseline outlook, the 2060 debt-to-GDP ratio far exceeds 81.1%, the government's long-term fiscal goal. The analysis finds that the government debt ratio in 2060 could be reduced to 87.6% by reforming local education financial grants, additional control of discretionary expenditures, raising effective tax rates of income and value-added taxes, and reducing tax expenditures.

Over the past two decades, the Korean economy has experienced low economic growth despite the persistent expansion in traditional inputs, capital, and labor. In this circumstance, TFP has come into the spotlight as a new engine to revitalize economic growth, which could enhance government revenues and fiscal sustainability.

In chapter 3, we investigate the determinants of TFP, focusing on the role of intangible assets on firms' productivity. Exploiting firm-level data from Kisvalue, we first estimate the TFP of sample firms by applying Olley-Pakes (1995) method and examine the determinants of TFP. Our findings show that other intangible assets such as patents and copyrights play a more decisive role in improving the productivity of firms rather than R&D investment. This tendency appears to have strengthened after the global financial crisis. Thus, our results indicate that Korean firms have not achieved effective allocation among their investments in intangible assets. In this sense, we suggest the Korean government seriously consider re-designing the institutional system to encourage firms to diversify their investment in intangible assets.

In chapter 4, several empirical analyses were conducted to understand the expected positive and negative effects of the controversial introduction of the fiscal rules to enhance fiscal soundness. An international panel analysis confirmed that introducing such rules could increase fiscal space mainly by reducing the intrinsic interest cost of the existing national debt. On the other hand, it also confirmed concerns that the pro-cyclicality of fiscal spending could increase if fiscal resources were insufficient, especially in developing countries, or if applied excessively multi-layered fiscal discipline. In addition, it was shown that the introduction of the spending rules regulating the total amount of fiscal spending significantly lowered the probability of occurrence of a systematic banking crisis.

In Korea, it is difficult to set realistically achievable national debt and fiscal balance ratios due to rapid changes in demographic and industrial structure. Given this reality, the government needs to prepare reasonable fiscal rules for the growth rate of government spending and the ratio of expenditure to GDP in order to reduce the excessive burden on the national economy due to fiscal uncertainty. Although the current level of the national debt is relatively low, it is desirable to manage its increasing rate by applying reasonable fiscal expenditure rules coupled with the appropriate fiscal balance rules when a rapid increase in national debt raises concern.

발간사
요 약

제1장 서 론
　참고문헌

제2장 장기재정전망과 재정여력 확보방안
　제1절 서 론
　제2절 기준선 장기재정전망 결과
　제3절 위험요인 분석
　제4절 재정여력 확보를 위한 정책과제
　제5절 결 론
　참고문헌
　부 록

제3장 성장잠재력 확충을 위한 연구개발 지원체계 개편 방향
　제1절 서 론
　제2절 총요소생산성과 선행연구 고찰
　제3절 총요소생산성과 경제성장, 무형자산투자의 국제비교
　제4절 총요소생산성 결정요인 분석
　제5절 시사점 및 제도 개선방향
　참고문헌

제4장 재정의 지속가능성
　제1절 서 론
　제2절 최근의 재정대응 현황과 재정지표 변화 추이
　제3절 우리나라와 일본의 재정준칙 논의과정
　제4절 재정준칙과 재정여력의 관계 분석
　제5절 재정준칙과 재정지출 경기순응도의 관계 분석
　제6절 재정준칙과 경제위기의 관계 분석
　제7절 우리나라 여건을 고려한 재정준칙 도입방안
　참고문헌

제5장 정책시사점

ABSTRACT